افزایش فراوانی سیلاب‌ها در پی گرمایش جهانی و مداخلات انسانی، چالشی فزاینده محسوب می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر، تأثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم آینده را بر حساسیت سیلاب‌خیزی حوضه آبریز قره‌سو بررسی می‌کند. هدف اصلی، کمی‌سازی و پهنه‌بندی دقیق خطر سیلاب تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی متنوع است. بدین منظور، از تلفیق الگوریتم‌های یادگیری ماشین، مدل‌های اقلیمی CMIP6 و تکنیک‌های سنجش از دور بهره گرفته شد. مدل اقلیمی MPI-ESM1-2-HR به‌دلیل دقت برتر در میان مدل‌های جهانی، جهت برآورد روندهای بارش تحت مسیرهای اجتماعی-اقتصادی SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 در دو افق زمانی میانی (۲۰۴۱-۲۰۷۰) و دور (۲۰۷۱-۲۱۰۰) انتخاب گردید. این سناریوها متغیرهای کلیدی نظیر انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای، شهرنشینی و تغییر کاربری اراضی را که در تعدیل حساسیت سیلاب مؤثرند، دربرمی‌گیرند. پهنه‌بندی حساسیت با الگوریتم‌های جنگل تصادفی (RF) و ماشین بردار پشتیبان (SVM)، مبتنی بر ۳۲۰ نقطه سیلاب و ۱۶ عامل محیطی و اقلیمی انجام شد. دقت پیش‌بینی مدل‌ها با شاخص سطح زیر منحنی (ROC-AUC) ارزیابی گردید. نتایج حاکی از عملکرد درخشان مدل RF بود؛ به‌طوری‌که این الگوریتم با ثبت AUC معادل ۹۴.۷۵٪ در مرحله اعتبارسنجی و حفظ دقت بالای ۹۰٪ در کلیه افق‌های زمانی و سناریوهای آینده، برتری مطلقی نسبت به مدل SVM از خود نشان داد. این یافته‌ها برای مدیریت ریسک سیلاب حیاتی است
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