بررسی تغییرات زمانی- مکانی خشکسالی در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه با بهره‌گیری از روش تحلیل روند تجربی متقاطع (CETA)

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

فرزانه سعیدپور

خدیجه جوان

گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

10.22067/geoeh.2026.100096.1689

چکیده

خشکسالی یکی از مهم‌ترین پدیده‌های اقلیمی مؤثر بر منابع آب و شرایط محیطی در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه است و بررسی تغییرات زمانی و مکانی آن اهمیت زیادی دارد. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تغییرات زمانی- مکانی خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص SPEI و روش تحلیل روند تجربی متقاطع (CETA) طی دوره 1987-2024 انجام شد. داده‌های بارش و دما در هشت ایستگاه منتخب حوضه مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که SPEI از نوسانات زمانی قابل‌توجهی برخوردار بوده و الگوی تغییرات آن در سطح حوضه یکنواخت نیست. تحلیل CETA نشان داد که در بیشتر ایستگاه‌ها شیب بخش بالایی (Us) و شیب محوری (Ps) کاهشی است، در حالی که رفتار بخش پایینی (Ls) در برخی ایستگاه‌ها متفاوت است. در مهاباد، سقز، تکاب و ارومیه، Us کاهشی و Ls افزایشی بود که بیانگر ناهم‌جهتی تغییرات در دو بخش انتهایی توزیع SPEI است؛ در مقابل، در مراغه، سهند و سراب، هر دو شیب جهت کاهشی داشتند. همچنین، شیب سن (Ss) در بیشتر ایستگاه‌ها کاهشی بود و تفاوت مقدار آن، ناهمگنی شدت تغییرات زمانی SPEI را نشان داد. در مجموع، نتایج بیانگر غلبه جهت کاهشی SPEI در بیشتر بخش‌های حوضه و وجود تفاوت مکانی در رفتار بخش‌های مختلف توزیع شاخص است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

خشکسالی

شاخص SPEI

تحلیل روند تجربی متقاطع (CETA)

تغییرپذیری اقلیمی

دریاچه ارومیه

موضوعات

• مخاطرات اقلیمی و اتمسفریک

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©2026 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

 

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