جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

نقش ناهنجاری‌های دما و ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل 500 هکتوپاسکال در رخداد بارش‌های سنگین ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران
2 گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
در این پژوهش، ناهنجاری‌های گردش جوی مرتبط با رخدادهای بارش سنگین ایران طی دوره 2022-1990 با تحلیل میدان‌های دما و ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال و استفاده از داده‌های بارش روزانه مشاهداتی و شبکه‌ای بررسی شد. ابتدا روزهای با بارش سنگین (صدک 95ام) مشخص و سپس با تحلیل مؤلفه اصلی، الگوهای جوی مرتبط شناسایی گردید. نتایج نشان داد در فصل پاییز و زمستان، بارش‌های سنگین در نیمه غربی ایران و سواحل دریای خزر و در فصل بهار نیز بیشینه آن در غرب و شمال کشور رخ داده است. تحلیل خوشه‌ای 5 الگوی ناهنجاری منفی ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل شامل گسترش تاوه قطبی، کم‌ارتفاع بریدۀ تراز میانی با ناهنجاری شدید ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل و دما، ناهنجاری ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل با فرود مدیترانه، و گسترش کم‌فشار اروپایی و ادغام آن با فرود مدیترانه بر منطقه را نشان داد. به­ لحاظ زمانی، الگوی اول و دوم عموماً در ژانویه و فوریه همزمان با ریزش هوای سرد شمال‌سو رخ می‌دهد. الگوی کم‌ارتفاع بریدۀ تراز میانی با ناهنجاری 180- ژئوپتانسیل متر، مهم‌ترین الگوی غالب جوی رخداد بارش‌های سنگین ایران با 157 رخداد و 34% فراوانی است. بر این اساس، مهم‌ترین الگوی دمایی مؤثر بر رخداد بارش سنگین ایران، الگوی ریزش سرد قطبی حول کم‌ارتفاع بریدۀ تراز میانی جو است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

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انتشار آنلاین از 08 شهریور 1405

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