جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

تلفیق دانش مبنا در پهنه‌بندی حساسیت زمین‌لغزش با رویکرد استانداردسازی اوزان مطالعات پیشین (مطالعه موردی: استان مازندران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران
2 گروه مهندسی ژئوماتیک، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
چکیده
پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش با روش‌های دانش مبنا، به‌ویژه در مناطق دارای کمبود داده‌های میدانی، از راهکارهای مهم مدیریت مخاطرات است؛ بااین‌حال، نبود سازوکاری علمی برای استانداردسازی اوزان حاصل از مطالعات ناهمگون، چالش اصلی این رویکردهاست. پژوهش حاضر باهدف رفع این شکاف، چارچوب نرمال‌سازی اهمیت نسبی را در استان مازندران اجرا و با روش وزن‌های میانه مقایسه کرده است. بر پایه فراوانی حضور در هفت مطالعه معتبر، ۹ معیار شامل شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، بارش، فاصله از گسل، جاده، آبراهه و مراکز جمعیتی و کاربری اراضی انتخاب و وزن‌دهی شدند. نتایج نشان داد شیب با وزن 0.239 بیشترین تأثیر را دارد و فاصله از جاده (0.133) و بارش (0.121) در رتبه‌های بعدی قرار می‌گیرند. استفاده از میانه، ضمن حفظ ترتیب کلی معیارها، وزن ارتفاع و کاربری اراضی را کاهش داد. وزن فاصله از مراکز جمعیتی نیز به دلیل حضور در تنها دو مطالعه، با عدم قطعیت همراه بود. روش نرمال‌سازی اهمیت نسبی با تمرکز 10.5 درصد نقاط لغزشی در پرخطرترین رده و افزایش نسبت فراوانی از 0.72 در رده کم‌خطر به 1.04 در رده پرخطر، نسبت به روش میانه با تمرکز 0.15 درصد نقاط، عملکرد بهتری داشت. مقادیر سطح زیر منحنی برای این دو روش به ترتیب 0.477 و 0.592 بود که ناکافی‌بودن این شاخص به‌تنهایی را نشان داد. اعتبارسنجی با 674 نقطه لغزشی، روند صعودی نسبت فراوانی را تأیید کرد. همچنین، 34.2 درصد مساحت استان در پهنه‌های خطر بالا و بسیار بالا قرار گرفت. این چارچوب برای پهنه‌بندی خطر در مناطق کوهستانی دارای داده کم مناسب است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

©2026 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

 

 

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