جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

پیش نگری و روند بارش‌های حوضه آبخیز ناورود بر اساس مدل‌های اقلیمی CMIP6

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
چکیده
پیش‌بینی دقیق بارش برای مدیریت منابع آبی و آمادگی در برابر رویدادهای اقلیمی، امری حیاتی است. در همین راستا، این پژوهش به منظور پیش‌نگری رفتار بارش روزانه ایستگاه‌های موجود در حوضه آبخیز ناورود، از پنج مدل منتخب CMIP6 بهره گرفته شد. داده‌های مدل‌ها با بهره‌گیری از سه روش تصحیح اریبی ‏(Local Intensity Scaling، ‏Distribution Mapping‏ و ‏Power Transformation) در نرم‌افزار ‏CMhyd‏ مقیاس‌کاهی شدند. در ارزیابی دقت این روش‌ها بر اساس شاخص‌های آماری ‏R²، RMSE، MAE، MSE‏ و NSE‏ روش Local Intensity Scaling بهترین عملکرد را در بازتولید الگوی مشاهداتی بارش نشان داد. در نهایت، مدل‌های MPI-ESM1-2-HR، MRI-ESM2-0، MIROC6، CNRM-CM6-1 و EC-Earth3-Veg به عنوان مدل‌های برتر انتخاب و در ترکیب مدل همادی برای پیش‌بینی بارش دوره ۳۰ سال آینده (2054–2025) تحت سناریوهای SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 به‌کار گرفته شدند. نتایج نشان داد الگوی مکانی بارش در حوضه آبخیز ناورود طی دوره پایه (2014–1985) از شرق (ایستگاه خرجگیل) به سمت غرب (ایستگاه ناو) کاهش یافته است و مدل همادی نیز توانست این الگوی مکانی بارش را به خوبی شبیه‌سازی نماید. اما پیش‌نگری مدل همادی برای دوره آینده (2054–2025)، ضمن حفظ الگوی کلی توزیع بارش، نشان داد بر اساس سناریوی SSP2‑4.5، بارش در ایستگاه‌های خلیان، خرجگیل و ناو به ترتیب ‏10.9، 3.9 و 5.5 ‏درصد و طبق سناریوی SSP5‑8.5 به میزان ‏8.3، 8.01 و 3.4 ‏درصد نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین انتظار می‌رود دوره‌های کم‌آبی از اردیبهشت تا مهر شدت بیشتری پیدا کنند. تحلیل روند تغییرات با آزمون‌های من–کندال اصلاح‌شده و شیب سن نیز حاکی از عدم وجود روند معنادار آماری در بارش روزانه ایستگاه‌ها است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

©2026 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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دوره 15، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 58
تابستان 1405
صفحه 229-251

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