جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

ارزیابی، پیش بینی و پهنه بندی خطر سیلاب در حوضه کشف رود با استفاده از الگوریتم های یادگیری ماشین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه آب‌وهواشناسی و ژئومورفولوژی دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران
چکیده
سیلاب به‌عنوان یکی از مخرب‌ترین مخاطرات طبیعی، سالانه خسارات جبران‌ناپذیری به زیرساخت‌ها و جوامع انسانی وارد می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پهنه‌بندی دقیق خطر سیلاب در حوضه آبخیز کشف‌رود، از دو الگوریتم پیشرفته یادگیری ماشین LMT و RF بهره برده است. در این مطالعه، ۱۳ پارامتر مؤثر شامل ارتفاع، انحنا، بارش، تراکم زهکشی، جهت شیب، ویژگی‌های خاک و زمین‌شناسی، شیب، فاصله از آبراهه، کاربری اراضی، شاخص پوشش گیاهی‌(NDVI)، رطوبت توپوگرافی (TWI) و توان آبراهه (SPI) به‌عنوان متغیرهای ورودی مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. داده‌های مربوط به ۱۴۵ نقطه سیلابی شناسایی و به دو مجموعه آموزش (۷۰٪) و اعتبارسنجی (۳۰٪) تقسیم شد. پس از وزن‌دهی لایه‌ها، نقشه‌های پتانسیل وقوع سیل با روش شکست طبیعی به پنج طبقه خطر طبقه‌بندی گردید. ارزیابی دقت مدل‌ها با استفاده از منحنی ROC نشان داد که مدل LMT با مقدار AUC برابر 897/0، دقت بالاتری نسبت به مدل RF با AUC برابر 811/0 دارد. نتایج پهنه‌بندی حاکی از تمرکز مناطق پرخطر در نواحی با شیب کم، سازندهای غیرقابل نفوذ، ارتفاعات پایین و دشت‌های سیلابی است. نواحی با خطر بسیار زیاد و زیاد عمدتاً در بخش‌های مرکزی و خروجی حوضه متمرکز شده‌اند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

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