گرم شدن هوا و زمین پیش از رخداد زلزلهها، پیشنشانگری است که از دوران باستان شناخته شده است. امروزه درستی این افسانه، با عنوان علمی ناهنجاری حرارتی، در زلزلههای بسیاری به اثبات رسیده است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی بروز این ناهنجاری در دورة بلندمدت سه سالة پیش از زلزلة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه با روش ساده انحراف از میانگین متحرک است. نتایج نشان داد که در یکی دو هفته پیش از رخداد این زلزله، هم در پارامترهای هواشناسی دمای هوا، دمای خاک و رطوبت هوا در ایستگاه همدید تازهآباد و هم در پارامتر ماهوارهای دمای سطح زمین، ناهنجاری روزانة کمسابقه یا بیسابقهای رخ داده است. این ناهنجاریها حرارتی میتواند با رخداد زلزله در پیوند باشد. بررسی مکانی ناهنجاری در دمای سطح زمین که ۱۵ روز پیش از زلزله رخ داده بود، روشن ساخت که در آن روز، مرز خشکی دو صفحه عربستان و اوراسیا در غرب ایران، گرم بوده و ناحیهای داغ در مرکز عراق با کشیدگی به سمت رومرکز زلزله پدیدار شده است. دیگر آزمونها نشان داد این روش ساده کشف ناهنجاری، قادر به شناسایی ناهنجاری حرارتی پیش از زلزلههای ۱۳۸۲ بم و ۱۳۸۹ محمدآباد ریگان، هر دو در استان کرمان نیز هست. زلزله ازگله، شاخصی برای زلزلههای منطقة فعال و پرجمعیت زاگرس است. امید این دست پژوهشها، شناخت بهتر پیشنشانگرهای زلزله در هر منطقه با هدف تحقق رؤیای پیشبینی زلزله است.
Akhoondzadeh, M. (2014). Thermal and TEC Anomalies Detection Using an Intelligent Hybrid System Around the Time of the Saravan, Iran, (Mw=7.7) Earthquake of 16 April 2013. Advances in Space Research, 53(4), 647–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2013.12.017
Akhoondzadeh, M; De Santis, A; Marchetti, D; Piscini, A; Jin, S. (2019). Anomalous seismo-LAI variations potentially associated with the 2017 MW=7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab (Iran) earthquake from Swarm satellites, GPS-TEC and climatological data. Advances in Space Research, 64(1), 143–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2019.03.020
Askari, G., Hafezi, N., Rahimi tabar, M. R., & Ansari, A. (2010). Detection of Thermal Infrared (TIR) Anomalies Related to the Ms=5.1 Earthquake on Oct.14, 2004 Near Ravar (SE Iran). Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 35(4), 1–16. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.2538371.1388.35.4.1.4
Barkat, A., Ali, A., Rehman, K., Awais, M., Riaz, M.S., Iqbal, T. (2018). Thermal IR Satellite Data Application for Earthquake Research in Pakistan. Journal of Geodynamics, 116, 13–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2018.01.008
Bellaoui, M., Hassini, A., & Bouchouicha, K. (2017). Pre-seismic Anomalies in Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Measurements: The Case Study of 2003 Boumerdes Earthquake. Advances in Space Research, 59(10), 2645–2657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.03.004
Bevis, M., Businger, S., Herring, T.A., Rocken, C., Anthes, R.A., & Ware, R.H. (1992). GPS Meteorology: Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Water Vapor Using the Global Positioning System. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 97(D14), 15787–15801. https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD01517
Bhardwaj, A., Singh, S., Sam, L., Joshi, P.K., Bhardwaj, A., Martin Torres, F.J., & Kumar, R. (2017). A Review on Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Anomaly as an Earthquake Precursor. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 63, 158–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.08.002
Blackett, M., Wooster, M.J., & Malamud, B.D. (2011). Exploring Land Surface Temperature Earthquake Precursors: A focus on the Gujarat (India) Earthquake of 2001. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(15), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048282
Choudhury, S., Dasgupta, S., Saraf, A.K., Panda, S. (2006). Remote Sensing Observations of Pre-Earthquake Thermal Anomalies in Iran. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(20), 4381–4396. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600851827
Choubsaz, S., Akhoondzadeh, M., & Saradjian, M.R. (2015). Thermal Anomaly Detection Prior to Earthquakes with Training Artificial Neural Networks with Ant Colony Optimization. Environmental Management Hazards, 2(2), 207–224. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22059/jhsci.2015.55062
Conti, L., Picozza, P., & Sotgiu, A. (2021). A Critical Review of Ground Based Observations of Earthquake Precursors. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.676766
Duan, S.B., Li, Z.L., Li, H., Gottsche, F.M., Wu, H., Zhao, W., Leng, P., Zhang, X., & Coll, C. (2019). Validation of Collection 6 MODIS Land Surface Temperature Product Using in Situ Measurements. Remote Sensing of Environment, 225, 16–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.020
Filizzola, C; Corrado, A; Genzano, N; Lisi, M; Pergola, N; Colonna, R; Tramutoli, V. (2022). RST analysis of anomalous TIR sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in Turkey in the period 2004–2015. Remote Sensing, 14(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14020381
Freund, F.T., Keefner, J., Mellon, J.J., Post, R., Takeuchi, A., Lau, B.W.S., La, A., Ouzounov, D. (2005). Enhanced Mid-Infrared Emission from Igneous Rocks Under Stress. Geophysical Research Abstract, 7.
Genzano, N., Filizzola, C., Hattori, K., Pergola, N., & Tramutoli, V. (2021). Statistical Correlation Analysis Between Thermal Infrared Anomalies Observed from MTSATs and Large Earthquakes Occurred in Japan (2005–2015). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(2), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020108
Gornyi, V.I., Salman, A.G., Tronin, A.A., & Shilin, B.V. (1988). Terrestrial Outgoing Infrared Radiation as an Indicator of Seismic Activity. In Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 301(1), 67–69. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2001.11762
Heidari, M., Mazidi, A., & Rousta, I. (2024). Investigating the Earthquake Cloud Precursor in the 2017 Azgeleh Earthquake in Kermanshah, Iran. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(1), 151–172. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2022.75548.1186
Jing, F., & Singh, R.P. (2022). Response of Surface and Atmospheric Parameters Associated with the Iran M 7.3 Earthquake. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 15, 5841–5852. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3188003
Justice, C.O., Townshend, J.R.G., Vermote, E.F., Masuoka, E., Wolfe, R.E, Saleous, N., Roy, D.P., & Morisette, J.T. (2002). An overview of MODIS Land data processing and product status. Remote Sensing of Environment, 83(1–2), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00084-6
Kayetha, V.K., Kumar J.S., Prasad, A.K., Cervone, G., & Singh, R.P. (2007). Effect of Dust Storm on Ocean Color and Snow Parameters. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 35(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02991828
Khalili, M., Alavi Panah, S.K., Abdollahi Eskandar, S.S. (2019). Using Robust Satellite Technique (RST) to Determine Thermal Anomalies Before a Strong Earthquake: A Case Study of the Saravan Earthquake (April 16th, 2013, MW= 7.8, Iran). Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 173, 70–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2019.01.009
Khoshgoftar, M.M, Saradjian, M.R. (2021). Estimation of parameters (Date and Magnitude) of Two Strong Earthquakes in Iran by Integrating Different Earthquake Precursors. Journal of Geospatial Information Technology, 9 (2), 67–81. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.52547/jgit.9.2.67
Liu, S., Cui, L., Wu, L., Wang, Z. (2009, July). Analysis on the Water Vapor Anomaly Before Wenchuan Earthquake Based on MODIS Data. In IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 412–415. Cape Town, South Africa. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2009.5418102
Maghsoudi, A., Moshtari, M. (2021). Challenges in Disaster Relief Operations: Evidence from the 2017 Kermanshah Earthquake. Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, 11(1), 107–134. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHLSCM-08-2019-0054
Mildrexler, D.J., Zhao, M., & Running, S.W. (2011). A Global Comparison Between Station Air Temperatures and MODIS Land Surface Temperatures Reveals the Cooling Role of Forests. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 116(G3), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001486
Mohamed, E.K., Gahalaut, V.K., Sekertekin, A., & Inyurt, S. (2021). Atmospheric, Ionospheric and Earth-related Variations Associated with the 11th August 2012 Earthquakes, Ahar, Iran. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105595
Nekoee, M., & Shah Hosseini, R. (2020). Thermal Anomaly Detection Using NARX Neural Network Method to Estimate the Earthquake Occurrence Time. Earth Observation and Geomatics Engineering, 4(2), 98–108. https://doi.org/10.22059/eoge.2021.292253.1067
Ouzounov, D., & Freund, F.T. (2004). Mid-Infrared Emission Prior to Strong Earthquakes Analyzed by Remote Sensing Data. Advances in Space Research, 33(3), 268–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(03)00486-1
Picozza, P., Conti, L., & Sotgiu, A. (2021). Looking for Earthquake Precursors from Space: A Critical Review. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.676775
Pulinets, S.A. (2004). Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes; Recent Advances in Theory and Practical Applications. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 15(3), 413–435. https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2004.15.3.413(EP)
Pulinets, S.A., Ouzounov, D., Ciraolo, L., Singh, R., Cervone, G., Leyva, A., Dunajecka, M., Karelin, A.V., Boyarchuk, K.A., & Kotsarenko, A. (2006). Thermal, Atmospheric and Ionospheric Anomalies Around the Time of the Colima M7.8 Earthquake of 21 January 2003. Annales Geophysicae, 24(3), 835–849. https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-24-835-2006
Saber Mahani, S., & Sepahvand, M. (2017). Investigating the Precursors of Earthquake Cloud and Temperature Changes in Identifying Earthquake-Causing Faults Case Study: The Earthquake in Mohammad-Abad-e-Rigan (January 27, 2011). Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 26(101), 25–32. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22131/sepehr.2017.25723
Saradjian, M.R., & Akhoondzadeh, M. (2011). Thermal Anomalies Detection Before Strong Earthquakes (M>6.0) Using Interquartile, Wavelet and Kalman Filter Methods. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11(4), 1099–1108. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1099-2011
Saraf, A.K., Rawat, V., Choudhury, S., Dasgupta, S., Das, J.D. (2009). Advances in Understanding of the Mechanism for Generation of Earthquake Thermal Precursors Detected by Satellites. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 11(6), 373–379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2009.07.003
Senturk, E., Inyurt, S., Sertcelik, I. (2020). Ionospheric Anomalies Associated with the Mw 7.3 Iran-Iraq Border Earthquake and a Moderate Magnetic Storm. Annales Geophysicae, 38(5), 1031–1043. https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1031-2020
Shahbazi, S., Papzan, A., & Gholami, M. (2021). Investigating the causes of lack of resilience of local communities against natural disasters (case study: Kermanshah province earthquake). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10(3), 163–179. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2021.68474.1014
Shen, X., Zhang, X., Hong, S., Jing, F., & Zhao, S. (2013). Progress and Development on Multi-Parameters Remote Sensing Application in Earthquake Monitoring in China. Earthquake Science, 26(6): 427–437. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-013-0053-9
Singh , R.P., Cervone, G., Singh, V.P., & Kafatos, M. (2007). Generic Precursors to Coastal Earthquakes: Inferences from Denali Fault Earthquake. Tectonophysics, 431(1–4), 231–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.05.040
Tramutoli, V., Corrado, R., Filizzola, C., Genzano, N., Lisi, M., & Pergola, N. (2015). From Visual Comparison to Robust Satellite Techniques: 30 Years of Thermal Infrared Satellite Data Analyses for the Study of Earthquake Preparation Phases. Bollettino Di Geofisica Teorica Ed Applicata, 56(2), 167–202. https://doi.org/10.4430/bgta0149
Tronin, A.A. (2010). Satellite Remote Sensing in Seismology; A Review. Remote Sensing, 2(1), 124–150. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs2010124
Tronin, A.A, Hayakawa, M., & Molchanov, O.A. (2002). Thermal IR Satellite Data Application for Earthquake Research in Japan and China. Journal of Geodynamics, 33(4–5), 519–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-3707(02)00013-3
Wu, L., Zhou, Y., Miao, Z., & Qin, K. (2018). Anomaly Identification and Validation for Winter 2017 Iraq and Iran earthquakes. In 20th EGU General Assembly, EGU2018.
Zhang, Y., Meng, Q., Wang, Z., Lu, X; Hu, D. (2021). Temperature Variations in Multiple Air Layers Before the Mw 6.2 2014 Ludian Earthquake, Yunnan, China. Remote Sensing, 13(5), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050884
Zhao, X., Pan, S., Sun, Z., Guo, H., Zhang, L., & Feng, K. (2021). Advances of Satellite Remote Sensing Technology in Earthquake Prediction. Natural Hazards Review, 22(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000419
