شبیه‌سازی شاخص های حدی دمای استان خوزستان بر اساس سناریوهای RCP

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

2 دانشگاه خوارزمی

3 دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

این مقاله، سعی نموده است روند شاخص های حدی دما را بر اساس سناریوی وضعیت موجود و سه سناریوی RCP شامل 6/2، 5/4 و 0/6 به‌عنوان سناریوهای پیشنهادی فاز 5 CMIP در استان خوزستان شبیه‌سازی نماید. برای این منظور شاخص های DTR،TMAXmean TMINmean، TN10p، TX10p، TN90p TN90p و TX90p از مجموعه شاخص های معرف تغییر اقلیم جهت تحلیل روند دما انتخاب گردیدند. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان می‌دهد در وضعیت موجود (2012-1982) کمینه‌های دما (72/2+ در سناریوی وضعیت موجود) نسبت به بیشینه‌های آن (2/1+ در سناریوی وضعیت موجود) با سرعت تقریباً بیشتری در حال افزایش هستند؛ به‌طوری‌که این مسئله منجر به روند کاهشی شاخص DTR شده است و شبیه‌سازی روند تغییرات دما بر اساس سناریوهای RCP حاکی از آن است در آینده (2050- 2013) روند افزایش دما همچنان ادامه خواهد داشت. به‌طورکلی در این پژوهش روند شاخص های شب‌های سرد و گرم (TN10p و TN90p) با روند شاخص TMINmean و شاخص های روزهای سرد و گرم (TX10p و TX90p) با شاخص TMAXmenn در مناطق مختلف استان هماهنگی نشان می دهد؛ به‌طوری‌که بر اساس آن‌ها تا سال 2050 شاخص‌های دوره سرد روند کاهشی (روزها و شب‌های سرد) و شاخص‌های دوره گرم سال (روزها و شب‌های گرم) روند افزایشی خواهند داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


شکیبا، علیرضا، خلیلی، عین‌الله و دشت بزرگی، آمنه؛ 1388. تحلیل روند تغییرات دمایی شهرستان اهواز بر اساس شاخص‌های حدی. مجله چشم‌انداز جغرافیایی. علمی – پژوهشی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد رشت. سال چهارم. شماره 8. بهار و تابستان.
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G. & Tagipour, A. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D5),
Bassu, S., Brisson, N., Durand, J. L., Boote, K., Lizaso, J., Jones, J. W& Basso, B. (2014). How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 20(7), 2301-2320.
Bell, J. L., Sloan, L. C., & Snyder, M. A. (2004). Regional changes in extreme climatic events: A future climate scenario. Journal of Climate, 17(1), 81-87
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A., Frei, C., Goyette, S.,& Woth, K. (2007). Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change, 81(1), 71-95.
Bokwa, A., &Limanowka, D. (2014). Effect of relief and land use on heat stress in Krakow, Poland. DIE ERDE–Journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin, 145(1-2), 34-48.
Brunetti, M., Buffoni, L., Mangianti, F., Maugeri, M., &Nanni, T. (2004). Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy. Global and Planetary Change, 40(1), 141-149.
Chamchati, H., &Bahir, M. (2011). Contribution of climate change on water resources in semi-arid areas: Example of the Essaouita Basin (Morocco). Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res, 2(2), 209-215.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J. M., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., ...&Wehner, M. (2013). Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility.
Deryng, D., Conway, D., Ramankutty, N., Price, J., & Warren, R. (2014). Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures. Environmental Research Letters, 9(3), 034011.
Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., &Mearns, L. O. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289(5487), 2068-2074.
Fan, L., &Xiong, Z. (2015). Using quantile regression to detect relationships between large-scale predictors and local precipitation over northern China.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(4), 541-552.
Fernandez‐Long, M. E., Müller, G. V., Beltran‐Przekurat, A., &Scarpati, O. E. (2013). Long‐term and recent changes in temperature‐based agroclimatic indices in Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, 33(7), 1673-1686.
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., & Jim Salinger, M. (2002). Observed climate variability and change. Weather, 57(8), 269-278.
Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M., & Peterson, T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19(3), 193-212.
Frumkin, H., Hess, J., Luber, G., Malilay, J., &McGeehin, M. (2008). Climate change: The public health response. American Journal of Public Health, 98(3), 435-445.
Furio, D., &Meneu, V. (2011). Analysis of extreme temperatures for four sites across Peninsular Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(1-2), 83-99.
Ha, K. J., & Yun, K. S. (2012). Climate change effects on tropical night days in Seoul, Korea. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109(1-2), 191-203.
Hansen, J., &Lebedeff, S. (1987). Global trends of measured surface air temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92(13), 345-13.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., & Ruedy, R. (2013). Global temperature update through 2012. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies. http://www. nasa. gov/pdf/719139main_2012_GISTEMP_summary. pdf.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lo, K., Lea, D. W., & Medina-Elizade, M. (2006). Global temperature change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(39), 14288-14293.
Haylock, M. R., Peterson, T. C., Alves, L. M., Ambrizzi, T., Anunciação, Y. M. T., Baez, J., ...& Vincent, L. A. (2006). Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19(8), 1490-1512.
ILUNGA, L., & TSHENDA, A. (2004). Facteurs physiques du ruissellement à Kigali (Rwanda). Geo-Eco-Trop, 28, 1-2.
IPCC, 2001: climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA, 2001. No. of pages: 881. Price £34.95, US$ 49.95, ISBN 0-521-01495-6 (paperback). £90.00, US$ 130.00, ISBN 0-521-80767-0 (hardback).
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324
Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L., & Kelly, P. M. (1982). Variations in surface air temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881-1980. Monthly Weather Review, 110(2), 59-70.
Jones, P.G. (2012). MarkSim_standalone for DSSAT users. Availableat: http://www.ccafs-climate.org/pattern_scaling/
Karl, T. R., &Trenberth, K. E. (2003). Modern global climate change. Science, 302(5651), 1719-1723.
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., & Plummer, N. (1995). Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the 20th-century. Nature, 377(6546), 217-220.
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., Gallo, K. P., Peterson, T. C., Jones, P. D., Kukla, G., ... &Charlson, R. J. (1993). A new perspective on recent global warming: asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 74(6), 1007-1023.
Kennett, E. J., & Buonomo, E. (2006). Methodologies of pattern scaling across the full range of RT2A GCM ensemble members. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research: Exeter, UK.
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., &Wehner, M. (2013). Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change, 119(2), 345-357.
Klein Tank, A. M. G., Wijngaard, J. B., Können, G. P., Böhm, R., Demaree, G., Gocheva, A., ... & Heino, R. (2002). Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International journal of climatology, 22(12), 1441-1453.
Kremser, S., Bodeker, G. E., & Lewis, J. (2014). Methodological aspects of a pattern-scaling approach to produce global fields of monthly means of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 249-266.
LaDochy, S., Medina, R., &Patzert, W. (2007). Recent California climate variability: Spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33(2), 159-169.
Li, J., Zhang, Q., Chen, Y. D., Xu, C. Y., & Singh, V. P. (2013). Changing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in China during 2071–2100 based on Earth System Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(22).
Liu, B., Xu, M., Henderson, M., Qi, Y., & Li, Y. (2004). Taking China's temperature: Daily range, warming trends, and regional variations, 1955-2000. Journal of Climate, 17(22), 4453-4462.
Liu, J., Fritz, S., Van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A., Fuchs, M., You, L., Obersteiner, M., & Yang, H. (2008). A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global and Planetary Change, 64(3), 222-235.
Liu, S. C., Fu, C., Shiu, C. J., Chen, J. P., & Wu, F. (2009). Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(17).
Lopez, A., Smith, L. A., & Suckling, E. (2011). Pattern scaled climate change scenarios: Are these useful for adaptation? Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper, December.
Marengo, J. A., Chou, S. C., Torres, R. R., Giarolla, A., Alves, L. M., &Lyra, A. (2014). Climate change in central and South America: Recent trends, future projections, and impacts on regional agriculture. Working Paper No 73.
McFadden, J., & Miranowski, J. (2014, May). Climate Change Impacts on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of US Agricultural Land. In 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota (No. 170512). Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
Mearns, L. O., Katz, R. W., & Schneider, S. H. (1984). Extreme high-temperature events: Changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23(12), 1601-1613.
Meehl, G. A., Karl, T., Easterling, D. R., Changnon, S., Pielke Jr, R., Changnon, D., ...&Zwiers, F. (2000). An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 413-416.
Meehl, G. A., Zwiers, F., Evans, J., Knutson, T., Mearns, L., &Whetton, P. (2000). Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 427-436.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., Van Vuuren, D. P., ... &Wilbanks, T. J. (2010). The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463(7282), 747-756.
Muhire, I., & Ahmed, F. (2016). Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123(1-2), 399-414.
Nandintsetseg, B., Greene, J. S., &Goulden, C. E. (2007). Trends in extreme daily precipitation and temperature near Lake Hövsgöl, Mongolia. International Journal of Climatology, 27(3), 341-347.
Naveed, S., Aslam, M., Maqbool, M. A., Bano, S., Zaman, Q. U., & Ahmad, R. M. (2014). Physiology of high temperature stress tolerance at reproductive stages in maize. J. Anim. Plant Sci, 24(4), 1141-1145.
Peterson, T. C., Taylor, M. A., Demeritte, R., Duncombe, D. L., Burton, S., Thompson, F., ...& Klein Tank, A. (2002). Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 107(D21).
Peterson, T., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., & Plummer, N. (2001). Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.
Plattner, G. K. & Stocker, T. F. (2010). From AR4 to AR5: New Scenarios in the IPCC Process. Workshop Report
Rahimzadeh, F., Asgari, A., &Fattahi, E. (2009). Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology, 29(3), 329-343.
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Mueller, B., & Alexander, L. V. (2014). No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nature Climate Change,4(3), 161-163.
Seo, Y. A., Lee, Y., Park, J. S., Kim, M. K., Cho, C., &Baek, H. J. (2015). Assessing changes in observed and future projected precipitation extremes in South Korea. International Journal of Climatology, 35(6), 1069-1078.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., &Meehl, G. A. (2012). An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498.
Tebaldi, C., &Arblaster, J. M. (2014). Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations. Climatic Change, 122(3), 459-471.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., ...& Rose, S. K. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31.
Yan, Z., Jones, P. D., Davies, T. D., Moberg, A., Bergström, H., Camuffo, D., ... & Thoen, E. (2002). Trends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations. In Improved Understanding of Past Climatic Variability from Early Daily European Instrumental Sources (pp. 355-392). Springer Netherlands.
Zhang, X., Hogg, W. D., &Bonsal, B. R. (2001). A cautionary note on the use of seasonally varying thresholds to assess temperature extremes: Comments on the use of indices to identify changes in climatic extremes'. Climatic Change, 50(4), 505-507.
Zhou, L., Dai, A., Dai, Y., Vose, R. S., Zou, C. Z., Tian, Y., & Chen, H. (2009). Spatial dependence of diurnal temperature range trends on precipitation from 1950 to 2004. Climate Dynamics, 32(2-3), 429-440.
CAPTCHA Image