Assessing the risks of climate change on wetland ecosystems using the GCM model (Case study: Alagol, Ajigol and Almagol wetlands, Golestan province)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Saleh Arekhi ¹
• abolghasm mamshli ²
• Abdulhafiz Panahi ³

¹ Golestan university

² Department of Civil Engineering, Non-Profit-Non-Governmental Institute, Lampi Gorgani Institute

³ General Department of Meteorology of Golestan Province

10.22067/geoeh.2025.90342.1526

Abstract

. In the climate change section, the simulation data of the average rainfall from the HadCM3 model in LARS-WG under the SRA1B scenario between 2021 and 2050 have been obtained. For this purpose, statistical indicators such as ME, RMSE and MSE were used to select the best interpolation method. I Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice software were used in order to weight the risk options as well as the effective indicators of risk level estimation. Based on the results of the modeling research, the rainfall series in Inche-Brun station has been associated with an approximate decrease trend. Also, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature show an increasing trend. According to the results, the risks threatening the wetland are drought, water shortage, increased evaporation and transpiration, sedimentation and filling, and loss of habitat. Considering that the level of the most important risks identified based on the ALARP principle are classified as high and medium, it is necessary to control, eliminate or reduce the risks. The prediction of land use maps for the next 15 years from the studied area shows that during the year 2035, the use of saline land will be 13346.55 hectares (63%). Other uses are in the following categories, respectively, vegetation use with 5601.78 hectares (26.4 percent) and water surface quarrying with 2265.75 hectares (10.6 percent). Considering the continuation of the wetlands degradation process, it is necessary to include this process and its results in the wetland management plan in the future. Considering that drought is the most important risk, the design of drought monitoring network and the calculation and allocation of environmental water rights of wetlands are the most important management strategies to prevent drought crisis.

Keywords

• climate change
• modeling
• Markov chain and Alagol
• Almagol and Ajigol wetlands

Main Subjects

• Climate change

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