Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Yazd University Department of meteorology and climatology.
2
Department of Geography, Yazd University
3
geography dep. yazduni. yazd
4
Associate professor in Climatalogy , Department of Geography, Yazd University
10.22067/geoeh.2025.88181.1488
Abstract
Abstract
One of the contentious issues among contemporary climatologists is the existence of climate change or alteration in the trends of atmospheric parameters. The primary aim of this research was to examine the trends in precipitation and temperature changes under climate change conditions, and to predict future temperature and precipitation in the Kabul Drainage Basin, Afghanistan. To evaluate the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature parameters, detection, trend analysis, prediction, and model accuracy analyses were conducted. In this process, methods such as anomalies, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test,Theil-Sen's Slope the LARS-WG model (sixth report), and statistical indices such as correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination (r, R²), RMSE, and NRMSE were used. The research findings indicate that in the Kabul Drainage Basin, the trends in these parameters are positive, with increasing annual average precipitation and increasing annual average temperature. The rainy season gradually shifted from winter to summer. Specifically, the annual precipitation between 1979 and 2020 has increased by approximately 0.30% or 0.93 mm, while the temperature has significantly increased by about 8% (1.2°C) degrees Celsius. Predictions suggest that the trend of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation will continue from the baseline period (1991-2021) into the 2021-2050 period. Across all scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the maximum temperature by 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8 degrees Celsius compared to the baseline period. Annual precipitation is also expected to decrease by approximately 11% compared to the baseline period. Therefore, the impacts of climate change, including increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, are likely to exacerbate the risk of floods and related hazards in the future. The study of precipitation and temperature parameters under climate change is crucial. Adaptation strategies for climate change and resilience enhancement are recommended.
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