Wildfire risk modeling using remote sensing methods and fire behavior simulation in Guilan province

Document Type : Research Article


1 University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Ardabil, I.R. Iran

2 PhD. Student of Forestry, Department of Forestry, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, I.R. Iran



Guilan province constitutes one of the most representative samples of forest and rangeland fire risk in Iran. In this research, a wildfire risk index in the province was developed based on the geospatial data and remote-sensing satellite images describing anthropogenic and biophysical factors of the landscapes. Fire risk index (value range from 0.0 to 1) was calculated based on 1) fire behavior (fireline intensity and fire rate of spread); 2) wildfire history; and 3) anthropogenic factors (distance from roads and settlements). Based on the modeling, fire risk in the study area varied from 0.0 to 0.68 with an average of 0.11. The low value of the fire risk index is observed in the lowlands, which are mainly covered by non-burnable fuel models (bare land, orchard-irrigation farming, built-up lands, and water bodies). While, the high value of the fire risk index is observed in the highlands, where there are dense forest covers with limited access to the road and fire fighting equipment compared to the low altitude areas. The calculated fire risk index showed that about 21% of the province, including the most ecologically important primary and old-growth forest ecosystems, is vulnerable to wildfires. Based on these findings, in these areas, fire management resources should be controlled and planned with a greater focus, fire prevention infrastructure should be strengthened, fire prevention training should be conducted to raise people's awareness, and various measures should be taken to increase the resilience of the vulnerable ecosystems of these areas need to take into account.


Main Subjects


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 10 June 2024
  • Receive Date: 29 January 2024
  • Revise Date: 28 May 2024
  • Accept Date: 10 June 2024