Investigating climate change and transformation of natural components with emphasis on floods (Case study: Gorganrood watershed)

Document Type : Research Article


1 General Directorate of Meteorology of Golestan Province

2 Department of Natural Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor Branch, Noor, Iran

3 of Geography department, Islamic Azad University, Noor branch.Noor.Iran

4 Professor, of Earth Sciences Department, Shahid Beheshti University,tehran,Iran



Changes in land use patterns, destruction of forests, inefficient management system of dams and houses increase the percentage of flood vulnerability. The method of the current research, according to the nature of the problem and the subject under investigation, is descriptive-analytical and applied studies with an emphasis on quantitative methods. Its dimensions and harmful consequences will be discussed. Also, in the present research, the regional changes of floods in the Gorganrood watershed by using information from meteorological organization (synoptic) stations with a 30-year statistical period (1368 to 1397), land use, vegetation cover, topographic humidity index. , slope, height, land lithology, distance from the river, river density, erosion, geology, runoff, simulated data, average rainfall from HadCM3 model in LARS-WG under SRA1B scenario between 2011 and 2045.In this research, in two different parts, in the first method, the LARS-WG model was used for micro-scale visualization to predict the future climate (near and far) and in the second part, the SWAT hydrological model was used to assess the risk of flooding, and according to the percentage of risks Probability in Gorganrood watershed was zoned in GIS software environment using SWAT extension. In this research. The results of this approach showed that human intervention in the main streams, urban and rural dispersion, creation of dams and destruction of pastures and damage to forests are among the main factors that have been effective in causing sudden floods in the region. This integrated approach revealed the necessity of continuous evaluation and validation of hydrological and hydraulic models in the Gorgan rood basin and ephemeral streams, land use and slope have caused different hydrological responses to the occurrence of precipitation in different basins of the region and this has created and The characteristics of flash floods have been impressive.


Main Subjects


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 December 2023
  • Receive Date: 29 September 2023
  • Revise Date: 14 November 2023
  • Accept Date: 09 December 2023