Investigating Precipitation Return Period and its Probability of Occurrence in Iran based on Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Azar Zarrin
• AbbasAli Dadashi Roudbari

Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

10.22067/geoeh.2021.71102.1079

Abstract

Return periods and the probability of the occurrence of precipitation are two important indicators in studies related to flooding and precipitation, and a correct understanding of the indicators can play an important role in climate risk studies. This study aimed to investigate the performance of the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) and to use it in determining the return periods and the probability of annual precipitation in Iran. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) method was used. Four statistics of RMSE, MBE, PBIAS, and R² in Köppen-Geiger climate classification in Iran were used to evaluate the MSWEP data. The results showed that this data has the best performance in arid and semi-arid regions of the country with a PBIAS of 0.40 and 0.32. In contrast, this data showed the least performance in two rainy (Cfa) and mountainous areas (Dsb), so that the maximum PBIAS between the climate zones of the country is seen between -2.45 and -0.09% in the above-mentioned zones, respectively. The results showed that the maximum probable precipitation occurs in periods of 1 to 15 years in the northern coasts and its maximum intensity occurs in the southern coasts of Iran. The probability of occurrence of precipitation in Iran fluctuates between 2.03 to 32.02%. Decreasing latitude from north to south and decreasing height from west to east are associated with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of precipitation in Iran. Maximum uncertainty is seen in the mountainous regions of Iran with a high probability of occurrence of precipitation.

Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)
• Iran
• MSWEP
• Precipitation Return Period
• Precipitation

20.1001.1.23221682.1400.10.4.11.2

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