Future study of urban settlements resilience against environmental hazards with emphasis on corona pandemic (Case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, PHD student in Geography and urban planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran


Resilience is an integrated approach to enhance existing capacities and reduce the vulnerability of human societies to a variety of environmental crises and hazards. In this regard, one of the most important crises and hazards that have overshadowed all over the world in recent years is the spread of the corona virus. Considering the negative effects and harms of coronavirus outbreak in different dimensions of human societies, the aim of the present study is the future study of Tabriz resilience against coronavirus pandemic. The research method in this study is a combination of quantitative-qualitative approaches with the nature of futures study, which in order to collect information is used from the Delphi technique of elites and city managers (30 experts in the field of crisis and risk management) and to analyze information is used from the technique of cross-impact analysis in software MICMAC. Findings indicate that the most influential among the studied drivers on other drivers in terms of urban resilience against the corona pandemic are related to economic drivers such as finding a new job if the current job is lost, the vulnerability of sources of income and the existence of institutions, finance supports the most vulnerable and most influential groups related to social impulses such as collective participation in dealing with the crisis and responding appropriately and behaving in critical situations. The results also show that due to the current situation and the lack of key and strategic drivers for effective system resilience, weak in economic and social structures, the city's management system and Iran's precarious position in the international arena, the future of Tabriz resilience based on environmental hazards (corona pandemic) will be unstable.


قدردانی و تشکر

قدرانی و تشکر از نخبگان و متخصصان حوزۀ مدیریت بحران و مخاطرات شهر تبریز در انجام پژوهش حاضر که بخشی از رسالۀ دکتری تحت عنوان تحلیل فضایی تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های شهری در برابر مخاطرات محیطی با تأکید بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و سناریونگاری (مطالعه موردی: شهر تبریز) با همکاری نویسندگان است.

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