Risk level assessing in tourism developing process (Case Study: Khorram Abad County)

Document Type : مقاله پژوهشی



1. Introduction
In general, the risks can disrupt the system or parts of it and disturb its stability. The diversified of tourism dimensions and its nature caused that tourism to be a systematic feature. Tourism system is mainly open system so that, tourism system is man-made, possibility and complex. This system contains an internal structure and an external structure. Therefore, risks and events can affect the system structure and disturb it. According to previous studies, tourism system risk is composed of a number of types of risk, physical–the risk of physical harm to the consumer as a result of the functioning of the product; financial–the risk that the money invested in the product will be lost; performance–the risk identified with the possibility that the product will not operate as expected; social–the fear that the purchase will not conform to the standards of the reference group; psychological–the fear that the product will not be compatible with the self-image of the consumer; time–the possibility that the consumption of the product will be overly time consuming; and opportunity loss–the risk that by taking a course of one action, the consumer will miss out on doing something else he or she would prefer to do. Also, some researchers have pointed to the health, terrorism, crime and political instability risks. The main purpose of the study at hand is therefore to explore the risks that are relevant to system of tourism in Khoram Abad. So that in this paper, we use the membership grade of possibility and severity to establish the analysis of tourism risk.
2. Study Area
Khoram Abad is located in Lorestan Province. Its area is equal to 4936 Km2. This county has great potential for tourism development. Tourism attraction in this study area involves historical, nature based and cultural resources. Such as, Falak ol Aflak, Kio leak, Nojian fall, Gahar, Kashkan Bridge, etc. The tourism system of this county is proposed to risk and vulnerability due to the lack of available attractions for tourists and tourist facilities disproportionately, dangerous environment for tourists, environmental pollution, planning and administrative problems and unfamiliarity of host communities with tourism field.

3. Material and methods
Risk assessment of tourism system has done based on Iso 31000 risk management manual. The first stage includes risk identification.
The risks are determined based on theoretical studies and Delphi method. The second step involves risk analysis. In this step Dematel model and Analytical network process are used. Dematel methods can identify causal interdependence between elements of the system through a diagram. ANP model has calculated the priority into a nonlinear process. The final step is evaluation and assessment of risk which we used Topsis model to classify the risks.
The statistical population includes three groups. The first group is the experts and Professionals. The second group contains tourists in Khoram Abad and the third group is managers of tourism. Tourist’s sample size is equal to 195 persons and the sample size of managers is equal to 50 persons.
4. Results and discussion
According to the result of Dematel and ANP models, the performance risk has the most severity. Risk based on severity includes safety and security risk, financial and economic risk, political risk, social and cultural risks, law risk, technological risk and health-environmental risk respectively. The result of possibility of risks shows that Law risk and technological risk are the most probability. Then, these two factors are combined and then evaluated level risk. The results indicate that the performance risk show the highest level. Finally Topsis results show that the level of risk in this county is moderately high.
The result in this study shows that, the most important tourism risk factor are performance and operational risks in Khoram abad county.
5. Conclusion
Overall, social dimensions - cultural, political, legal, economic, security, and infrastructure management, technology and the environment will affected the future prospects of tourism. These dimensions are divided into two main groups. The first group includes external factors, which is related to environment and Exogenous variables that impact on the tourism system. The second group is related to internal elements and Endogenous properties affecting in this system.
In this study we have attempted to examine all factors that are threatened sustainable tourism development process and disorders that may be hurt to tourism system. Also, in this study, management and assessment of risk process it reviewed in tourism destination. So, truly and realistically identification and examination of risks is essential in tourism management and planning activities. This risk contains management factors, administrative factors, marketing risk and human resources risk.