Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards

Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards

Assessment and Comparative Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms (SVM, ANN, and MaxEnt) for Landslide Susceptibility Zonation (LSZ) in the Ziarat Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
1 Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Range and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
2 Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Gorgan, Iran
Abstract
Landslide is one of the most destructive slope hazards in mountainous regions. The performance of three machine learning models — Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) — was evaluated and compared for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Ziarat watershed (Golestan Province). A total of 116 landslide points were recorded through GPS field surveys. Stratified random sampling was applied to preserve the spatial distribution of points across geological units, elevation classes, and slope categories. Of these, 81 points (70%) were allocated for training and 35 points (30%) for validation. A total of 5 main factor groups (topography, hydrology, geology, morphometry, and anthropogenic factors) comprising 23 sub-factors were selected: slope, aspect, elevation, valley depth, profile and plan curvature, topographic position index, relative slope position, convergence index, positive and negative openness, rainfall, distance from drainage network, topographic wetness index, stream power index, flow accumulation, geological formation, distance from faults, soil texture, mass balance index, Melton ruggedness index, and vector ruggedness measure. Modeling was performed using ModEco software, and accuracy assessment was carried out using the ROC curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) index. Results showed that the ANN model (AUC = 0.936) and the SVM model (AUC = 0.934) performed comparably well, while the MaxEnt model (AUC = 0.904) ranked lower. The most influential factors controlling landslide occurrence were, in order: elevation (corresponding to zones with annual rainfall exceeding 550 mm), the Shemshak and Gorgan Schist formations, and distance from residential areas. Given the ongoing land use changes and increasing construction activity in the Ziarat watershed, restrictions on land use conversion and a ban on construction on steep slopes are recommended.
Introduction
Landslides represent a prevalent and destructive geohazard globally, imposing substantial socioeconomic costs through loss of life, infrastructure damage, and environmental degradation. Their recurrent nature and profound destructive potential underscore the imperative for advanced research in watershed management and geotechnical engineering to devise robust predictive and mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) stands as a critical spatial planning and management tool, enabling the precise identification of areas inherently prone to slope instability. This proactive approach facilitates informed land-use planning and targeted risk reduction interventions. The intrinsic complexity and non-linear interactions among diverse geomorphological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors governing landslide initiation frequently render conventional modeling techniques insufficient. Consequently, the application of sophisticated machine learning algorithms has gained considerable traction in LSZ studies, attributed to their enhanced capacity to model these intricate spatial relationships. Selecting an accurate and computationally efficient model is crucial for reliable landslide prediction and effective risk management in watershed planning. This research endeavors to rigorously assess and comparatively analyze the predictive performance of three prominent machine learning models—Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)—in generating accurate landslide susceptibility maps for the Ziarat watershed, located in Golestan Province, Iran. The primary objective is to ascertain the optimal predictive model for this geomorphologically dynamic region, thereby contributing to more effective landslide hazard management.
Material and Methods
The study area, the Ziarat watershed in Golestan Province, Iran, is characterized by diverse topography and geological formations, rendering it susceptible to frequent landslide events. The initial step in landslide susceptibility zoning involves generating a spatial distribution map of historical landslide events, which serves as a critical foundation for subsequent susceptibility and hazard assessment studies. A comprehensive landslide inventory was compiled through detailed field investigations, identifying 116 distinct landslide locations. To ensure model impartiality and robust validation, these locations were stochastically partitioned: 81 points (%70) were designated for model training, while the remaining 35 points (%30) were reserved for independent model validation. A total of 23 conditioning factors, recognized for their influence on landslide occurrence, were meticulously prepared as input variables. These factors encompassed a broad spectrum of environmental parameters, including eleven topographic indices (aspect, slope degree, elevation, valley depth, profile curvature, plan curvature, LS factor, relative slope position (RSP), convergence, positive openness, negative openness), five hydrological variables (rainfall, distance to drainage network, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), flow accumulation), three geological attributes (Lithology, distance to faults, soil texture), and three morphometric indices (mass balance index (MBI), Melton roughness index (MRI), vector ruggedness measure (VRM)), along with one anthropogenic factor (distance to residential areas). To evaluate multicollinearity among predictive factors, tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) indices were computed using SPSS version 26. The machine learning models (ANN, SVM, and MaxEnt) were implemented within the ModEco software environment, configured to elucidate the complex, non-linear relationships between these environmental factors and landslide susceptibility. Model performance was quantitatively evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) metric.
Results and Discussion
The comparative assessment of the three machine learning models for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Ziarat watershed yielded distinct performance outcomes during the validation phase. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.936 and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model with an AUC value of 0.934 exhibited a highly comparable and robust performance. These results signify the exceptional accuracy and reliability of both ANN and SVM models in delineating landslide-prone areas within the study region. In contrast, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, while demonstrating good performance, recorded a comparatively lower AUC of 0.904. The marginal difference in AUC between ANN and SVM suggests their analogous effectiveness in capturing the intricate spatial dependencies between the 23 conditioning factors and landslide incidence. Further analysis focused on quantifying the relative importance of these conditioning factors. This assessment revealed that elevation, geological characteristics, and distance from residential areas were the most influential predictors of landslide susceptibility. This finding is highly consistent with the local geomorphological context, where steep slopes at higher elevations and the presence of unstable geological formations are primary drivers of instability. The significant influence of distance from residential areas highlights the critical role of anthropogenic pressures in exacerbating landslide risk in the watershed.
Conclusion
This research successfully evaluated the efficacy of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Ziarat watershed. The generated susceptibility maps represent invaluable assets for local authorities and land-use planners, offering a scientific basis for targeted risk management and mitigation strategies. Specifically, these maps can inform the prioritization of slope stabilization measures and guide sustainable development in high-risk zones. This study significantly advances the understanding of landslide susceptibility modeling in complex terrains and offers a transferable methodology for similar investigations in other susceptible regions. For future research, it is recommended to employ hybrid modeling approaches that integrate machine learning algorithms with deep learning architectures to enhance the accuracy and robustness of landslide prediction. Furthermore, given the observed land-use transformations including the expansion of residential zones and increased villa construction in the Ziarat watershed implementing regulatory measures to constrain unplanned land-use changes in this area is strongly advised to mitigate landslide risk.
Keywords
Subjects

©2026 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

 

 

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 04 June 2026

  • Receive Date 03 March 2026
  • Revise Date 30 May 2026
  • Accept Date 02 June 2026
  • Publish Date 04 June 2026