ارزیابی خطر سیلاب در حوضه آبریز اوجان‌چای با استفاده از منطق فازی و مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مرضیه اسمعیل پور

دانشیار اقلیم‌شناسی در برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

10.22067/geoeh.2023.82202.1359

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر خطر سیلاب در سطح حوضه اوجان­ چای، واقع در شهرستان بستان­ آباد استان آذربایجان شرقی، ارزیابی شد. برای تهیه نقشه خطر تعداد 16 متغیر مکانی تأثیرگذار بر وقوع سیلاب موردتوجه قرار گرفته و در بستر سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی با استفاده از منطق فازی ترکیب و تحلیل شدند. نتایج همپوشانی با کاربست اپراتور گامای فازی نشان داد بالغ بر 8/4 درصد از مساحت حوضه در کلاس با خطر بسیار زیاد قرار گرفته است. بخش قابل‌توجهی از این پهنه ­ها منطبق بر بستر رودخانه­ های اصلی حوضه و اراضی پیرامون آن‌هاست. کلاس با خطرپذیری زیاد نیز عمدتاً در مجاورت کلاس مذکور قرار گرفته و بالغ بر 6/16 درصد مساحت حوضه مطالعاتی را شامل می­ شود. این پهنه­ ها می ­توانند توسط سیلاب ­های با دوره بازگشت 10 سال و بالاتر تحت تأثیر قرار گیرند. حدود 2/3 درصد از مناطق مسکونی با مساحتی بالغ 1/11 هکتار در کلاس با خطرپذیری بسیار زیاد و حدود 9/42 درصد با مساحتی بالغ بر 9/35 هکتار در کلاس با خطرپذیری زیاد واقع شده ­اند. در بخش دوم تحقیق از مدل HEC-HMS به­ منظور شبیه ­سازی بارش- رواناب و شناسایی زیرحوضه­ های با پتانسیل تولید رواناب بالا استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد هیدروگراف سیلاب زیرحوضه ­ها و خروجی حوضه تا حد زیادی تحت تأثیر ویژگی­ های ژئومورفومتری و پوشش زمین است. پیک­ های بالا در زیرحوضه­ های با کمترین میزان پوشش حفاظتی، شیب زیاد، نفوذپذیری کم، فراوانی برون­زدهای سنگی و سطوح غیرقابل نفوذ مشاهده می ­شود. می ­توان به زیرحوضه ­های بالادست ازجمله 1، 3، 7، 11 و 12 اشاره کرد که از بالاترین میزان دبی پیک برخوردارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ارزیابی خطر سیلاب

نقشه‌سازی خطر سیلاب

سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)

مدل HEC-HMS

حوضه اوجان‌چای

شمال‌غرب ایران

موضوعات

• مخاطرات اقلیمی و اتمسفریک

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©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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