Forecast carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and environmental changes: Case study of Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Samaneh Bagheri ¹
• Habib Ansari Saman ²

¹ Ph.D Student of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

² Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

10.22067/geoeh.2021.67232.0

Abstract

Iran has a comparative advantage in consuming fossil fuels due to its vast resources of fossil fuels. Consumption of fossil fuels may lead to the environmental pollutions. According to international organizations, carbon dioxide emissions in Iran have been increasing, so research in this area is important. This study has investigated for the first time the carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of small fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, for the period 1982-2019 using the long-term memory method. According to this study, it is predicted that in 2039, the carbon emissions from coal consumption will be 4.8378 (MMtonnes CO2), the carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas consumption will be 594.2 (MMtonnes CO2), and the carbon dioxide emissions from oil consumption will be 353/95 (MMtonnes CO2). Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas consumption will be greater than the emissions of other fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide emissions from all three fossil fuels are projected to increase by 2039. Emissions of carbon dioxide from 2039 solar will reach 169701 kilotons, emissions of carbon dioxide from energy fuels will reach 78769 kilotons and solid fossil fuels in 2039 will reach 3605 kilotons. Emissions of carbon dioxide from energy fuels to fossil fuels increase. Water evaporation will increase in 2030 in Iran and the Middle East. Rainfall in Iran and the Middle East will decrease in 2030. This research will help policymakers to adopt more effective policies to improve the environment.

Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Carbon dioxide emission forecast
• Fossil energy consumption
• Long term memory
• RCP scenarios

20.1001.1.23221682.1400.10.3.6.5

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