Reconstruction of maximum temperature variations in Kermanshah province using tree rings

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Mohsen Arsalani ¹
• Ghasem Azizi ¹
• Faramarz Khoshakhlagh ²

¹ Tehran University

² University of Tehran

10.22067/geo.v1i1.16542

Abstract

Introduction
Iran is located in a semi arid region of the world. In recent years, dramatic changes in the form of increasing in maximum temperature and severe droughts have damaged water resources, local forests and agriculture. In the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the warmest years have been recorded in recent decades (IPCC, 2007). In order to fully understand the climatic fluctuation in each region and its effect on regional ecosystems, long time monitoring of climatic parameters is necessary. Using these gathered data and different methods and modeling, the regional climate change can be studied. Establishment of meteorological stations in Iran dates back not longer than 1950s. To face this challenge, indirect evidence of past climatic situation which is recorded in some living and non living structures can be used. Tree rings are annually resolved natural archives that provide proxy data for palaeo-environmental studies and reconstructions of various climate elements. Despite of long-lived tree species in the north and the west of Iran, unfortunately dendroclimatology studies are still scare in the region. The Zagros Mountain range in the west of Iran contain the largest oak woodlands in the country and these trees are the most abundant and important species in the Zagros forests. In addition, one of the most important sites of Quercus infectoria Olive is located in Kermanshah province. The relatively high longevity of these trees and their wide distribution make them potentially suitable for dendroclimatological approaches. Our aim is to reconstruct variability of maximum temperature in Kermanshah province based on oak tree rings.
Materials and methods
Faryadras site is one of the largest sites of Quercus infectoria Olive in Kermanshah province, western Iran. The region is a part of the central Zagros Mountains. In the region, precipitation usually falls during an eight month period from October to May whereas there is no effective precipitation in other months during a year. We extracted 20 cores from 10 trees at breast height using an increment borer. Only the largest diameter trees with no obvious injury or disease were sampled. The samples were mounted on sample holders, coded, air dried and measured from bark to pith with a LINTAB5 measuring system at a resolution of 0.01 mm using the software package TSAP-Win. All growth curves were cross-dated by visual and statistical tests (sign-test and t-test) using the software package TSAP-Win. The raw ring-width series were standardized to remove biological growth trends as well as other low-frequency variations due to stand dynamics. We decided to use residual chronology (RC) were constructed with the ARSTAN program. The reliability of the chronology was evaluated by the expressed population signal (EPS; Wigley et al., 1984). Meteorological data for our study were available from the climate stations of Kermanshah (33°21’N, 47°09’E; 1318 m a.s.l.). We used Monthly and seasonal maximum temperatures from pervious January to current September of the meteorological station to calibrate the ring-width_ climate relationships during the common period 1951–2010. To assess the temporal stability of the climate calibration model, the instrumental data (1951–2010) were split in half (1951–1980, 1981–2010) for calibration and verification tests. Due to high correlations between the site chronology and instrumental data, a linear regression model was used to reconstruct past maximum temperature variations.
Result and discussion
Statistical tests (sign-test and t-test) showed that all of the growth curves have the same trend in the Faryadras site. The length of the chronology is 305 years (1705 – 2010), the first year with EPS >0.85 was found in A.D. 1840. Quercus infectoria tree rings show the high sensitivity to maximum temperature and maximum temperature is one of the limiting factors of the tree growths in Faryadras site. Maximum temperature has a negative effect on tree growths from previous January to current September. Significant negative correlations between maximum temperature and the residual chronology were found in February, March, May, June, July (p

Keywords

• Dendroclimatology
• Temperature variations
• Quercuse Infectoria Chronology
• Kermanshah

---

References

Akkemik, U., 2009. Dendroclimatology in the Near East. The International Symposium on Climate Change and Dendrochronology in Caspian Ecosystems, Sari.

Amir Chakhmaghi, N., Sohrabi, H., 2010. Evaluation of Quercus Persica Tree Rings for Dendroclimatology. The First Iranian Conference on Natural Resources Research, Snanadaj, Iran.

Arsalani, M., 2012. Reconstruction of Precipitation and Temperature Variations Using Oak Tree Rings in Central Zagros. M.A. Dissertation, University of Tehran, Faculty of Geography, Tehran, Iran.

Asakereh, H., 2007. Climate change. Zanjan University Press.

Azizi, GH., Arsalani, M., Yamani, M., 2012. Reconstruction of October-May precipitation variations based on tree rings in Kermanshah city over the period 1705-2010. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, No. 79, PP. 37-53.

Azizi, GH., Roshani, M., 2008. Study of Climate Change in Southern Coastal of Caspian Sea Using Man- Kendal Method. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, No. 64, PP. 13-28.

Cook, E. R., 1985. A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. Unpublished ph.D. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, P. 171.

Fan, Ze-Xin., Brauning, A., Cao, Kun-Fang., 2008. Annual temperature reconstruction in the central Hengduan Mountains, China, as deduced from tree rings. Dendrochronologia, v. 26, p. 97-107.

Fan, Ze-Xin., Brauning, A., Tian, Qin-Hua., Yang, Bao., Cao, Kun-Fang,. 2010. Tree ring recorded May–August temperature variations since A.D. 1585 in the Gaoligong Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. PALAEO, v. 296, P. 94–102.

Flower, A., Esmith, D.J., 2011. A dendroclimatic reconstruction of June–July means temperature in the northern Canadian Rocky Mountains. Dendrochronologia, V. 29, and P. 55–63.

Frank, D., Esper, J., 2005. Temperature reconstructions and comparisons with Instrumental data from a tree-ring network for the European Alps. Int. J. Climatol, V. 25, P. 1437-1454.

Garcia- Suarez,M.A., Butler, C.J., Baillie, M.G.L., 2009. Climate signal in tree-ring chronologies in a temperature climate: A multi – species approach. Dendrochronologia, v. 27, p. 183-198.

Hai, F. Z., Xue, M, S., Zhi, Y, Y., Peng, X., Yan, X., Hua, T., 2011. August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings. PALAEO, v. 5, p. 703.

IPCC-TGICA, 2007. General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment.Version 2, Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment, 66 pp.

Jacoby, G., Solomina, O., Frank, D., Eremenko, N., Arrigo, R. D., 2004. Kunashir (Kuriles) Oak 400-year reconstruction of temperature and relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. PALAEO, v. 209, P. 303-311.

Kaennel, M., Schweingruber, F.H., 2001. Multilingual Glossary of Dendrochronology. Translated by: D. Parsapajouh, H. R. Taghiyari., M, Faezipour., Tehran University Press.

Karamzadeh, S., Pourbabai, H., Torkaman, J., 2010. Dendroclimatology of Quercus Inferctoria in Saravan Region, Gilan. Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, PP. 15-26.

Kose, N., Akkemik, U., Dalfes, H.N., Ozeren, M.M., 2011. Tree-ring reconstructions of May–June precipitation for western Anatolia. Quaternary Research -03177.

Lake, p. Sam., 2011. Drought and Aquatic Ecosystems Effects and Responses. WILY-BLACKWELL, 168p.

Liang, E., Xuemei, S., Ningsheng, Q., 2007. Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan plateau. Global and Planetary Change, v. 16, p. 313-320.

Liu, J., Yang, B., Qin, C., 2011. A Tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction since AD 1480 in south central Tibet. Quaternary International 236, 75-81.

Loder, N., Danny, M., Mary, G., Iain, R., Risto, J., 2007. Stable Isotopes as Indicators of Ecological Change. Chapter three, Elsevier Inc.

Najafi, F., Pourtahmasi, K., Karimi, A., 2010. Dendroclimatology Investigation of Quercus Infectoria in the West of Iran. The First Iranian Conference on Natural Resources Research, Sanandaj, Iran.

Pourtahmasi, K., Bräuning, A., Poursartip, L., Burchardt, I., 2012. Growth-climate responses of oak and juniper trees in different exposures of the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. TRACE Vol. 10, in the press

Vose, R. S., Easterling, D. R., and Gleason, B., 2005. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004. Geophys Res, V. 32. doi:10.1029/2005GL024379

Wigley, T., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., 1984. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Applied Meteorology 23, 201-213.

Wilson, R. J. S., Luckman, B. H., 2002. Tree-ring reconstruction of maximum and minimum temperatures and the diurnal temperature rang in British Columbia, Canada. Dendronologia, v. 20/3, P. 1-12.

Youngblut, D., Luckman, B., 2008. Maximum June-July temperature in the southwest Yukon over the last 300 years reconstructed from tree rings. Dendrochronologia, v. 25, p. 153-166.