Simulating Changes in Organic Carbon of Forest Soils Due to Climate Change at Different Altitudes Using the Roth C Model

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Mehran Misaghi ¹
• Ahmad Golchin ²
• Mohammad Sadegh Askari ³

¹ PhD in Soil Science, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

² Professor in Soil Science, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

³ University of Zanjan

10.22067/geoeh.2024.85968.1445

Abstract

This study explores the influence of land altitude on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in the forest soils of Talesh County, Gilan Province. Soil samples were collected from four distinct altitudinal ranges (500–1000, 1000–1500, 1500–2000, and 2000–2500 meters above sea level) with comparable intrinsic characteristics. Composite soil samples were taken from a depth of 0–35 cm, and the concentration of soil organic carbon, combined with soil bulk density from undisturbed samples, was used to calculate SOC stocks.
Statistical comparisons were conducted using a randomized complete block design (RCBD). The Roth C model was employed to estimate the organic carbon content of the soils. Climatic data and soil organic carbon content at each altitude were utilized to calibrate and validate the model. To assess potential variations in SOC storage under changing conditions, diverse climate change scenarios were simulated using the Roth C model.
The findings revealed that as land elevation increased, SOC storage also increased, primarily due to higher precipitation and lower temperatures at higher altitudes. The Roth C model demonstrated high precision in estimating SOC levels, with correlation and determination coefficients of 0.97 and 0.95, respectively.
The model further suggested that under current climate conditions, soil organic carbon remains stable over time. At equilibrium, the carbon input into the soil through plant residues equals the carbon output from the soil as carbon gas emissions.

Keywords

• Soil Carbon (SOC)
• AltitudeGradient
• Forest Ecosystems
• Carbon Sequestration
• Roth C model
• Climate change Scenarios

Main Subjects

• Climate change

---

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

References

Aguilera, E., Lassaletta, L., Gattinger, A., & Gimeno, B. S. (2013). Managing soil carbon for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Mediterranean cropping systems: A meta-analysis. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 168, 25-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.02.003

Ahmad Dar, J., & Somaiah, S. (2015). Altitudinal variation of soil organic carbon stocks in temperate forests of Kashmir Himalayas, India. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 187, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-4204-9

Banday, M., Bhardwaj, D. R., & Pala, N. A. (2019). Influence of forest type, altitude and NDVI on soil properties in forests of North Western Himalaya, India. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 39(1), 50-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chnaes.2018.06.001

Bangroo, S. A., Najar, G. R., & Rasool, A. (2017). Effect of altitude and aspect on soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in the Himalayan Mawer Forest Range. Catena, 158, 63-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2017.06.017

Bhattacharyya, R., Prakash, V., Kundu, S., Srivastva, A. K., Gupta, H. S., & Mitra, S. (2010). Long term effects of fertilization on carbon and nitrogen sequestration and aggregate associated carbon and nitrogen in the Indian sub-Himalayas. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 86, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-009-9270-y

Blake, G. R., & Hartge, K. H. (1986). Particle density. Methods of soil analysis: Part 1 physical and mineralogical methods. Arnold Klute 5, 377-382. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssabookser5.1.2ed.c14

Cardinael, R., Chevallier, T., Cambou, A., Béral, C., Barthès, B. G., Dupraz, C., ... & Chenu, C. (2017). Increased soil organic carbon stocks under agroforestry: A survey of six different sites in France. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 236, 243-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.12.011

Chai, T., & Draxler, R. R. (2014). Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)?–Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(3), 1247-1250. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1247-2014

Choudhury, B. U., Fiyaz, A. R., Mohapatra, K. P., & Ngachan, S. (2016). Impact of land uses, agrophysical variables and altitudinal gradient on soil organic carbon concentration of North‐Eastern Himalayan Region of India. Land Degradation & Development, 27(4), 1163-1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2338

Christensen, B. T. (1992). Physical fractionation of soil and organic matter in primary particle size and density separates. Advances in Soil Science, 20, 1-90. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2930-8_1

Cohen, I., Huang, Y., Chen, J., Benesty, J., Benesty, J., Chen, J., ... & Cohen, I. (2009). Pearson correlation coefficient. Noise reduction in speech processing, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00296-0_5

Dahlgren, R. A., Boettinger, J. L., Huntington, G. L., & Amundson, R. G. (1997). Soil development along an elevational transect in the western Sierra Nevada, California. Geoderma, 78(3-4), 207-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(97)00034-7

Deng, L., Liu, G. B., & Shangguan, Z. P. (2014). Land‐use conversion and changing soil carbon stocks in C hina's ‘Grain‐for‐Green’Program: a synthesis. Global Change Biology, 20(11), 3544-3556. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12508

Dieleman, W. I., Venter, M., Ramachandra, A., Krockenberger, A. K., & Bird, M. I. (2013). Soil carbon stocks vary predictably with altitude in tropical forests: Implications for soil carbon storage. Geoderma, 204, 59-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.04.005

Don, A., Seidel, F., Leifeld, J., Kätterer, T., Martin, M., Pellerin, S., ... & Chenu, C. (2024). Carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation—Definitions and pitfalls. Global Change Biology, 30(1), e16983. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16983

Dwivedi, D., Riley, W. J., Torn, M. S., Spycher, N., Maggi, F., & Tang, J. Y. (2017). Mineral properties, microbes, transport, and plant-input profiles control vertical distribution and age of soil carbon stocks. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 107, 244-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2016.12.019

Fallahi, J., Rezvani Moghaddam, P., Nassiri Mahallati, M., & Behdani, M. A. (2013). Validation of RothC model for evaluation of carbon sequestration in a restorated ecosystem under two different climatic scenarios. Water and Soil, 27(3), 656-668. https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v0i0.26092

Farina, R., Coleman, K., & Whitmore, A. P. (2013). Modification of the RothC model for simulations of soil organic C dynamics in dryland regions. Geoderma, 200, 18-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.01.021

Field, A. (2024). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics. Sage publications limited.

Gee, G. W. & Or, D. (2002) Particle Size Analysis. In: Dane, J.H. and Topp, G.C., Eds., Methods of Soil Analysis, Part 4, Physical Methods, Soils Science Society of America, Book Series No. 5, Madison, 255-293.https://doi.org/10.2136/sssabookser5.4.c12

Gibbins, J., & Chalmers, H. (2008). Carbon capture and storage. Energy Policy, 36(12), 4317-4322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.058

Jebari, A., Del Prado, A., Pardo, G., Rodriguez Martin, J. A., & Álvaro‐Fuentes, J. (2018). Modeling regional effects of climate change on soil organic carbon in Spain. Journal of Environmental Quality, 47(4), 644-653. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2017.07.0294

Jenkinson, D. S., & Coleman, K. (2008). The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover. European Journal of Soil Science, 59(2), 400-413. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2389.2008.01026.x

Kaczynski, R., Siebielec, G., Hanegraaf, M. C., & Korevaar, H. (2017). Modelling soil carbon trends for agriculture development scenarios at regional level. Geoderma, 286, 104-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.10.026

Kashi Zenouzi, L., Shafiee, B., & Jafari, A. A. (2016). Investigating the Effect of Some Environmental Factors on Organic Carbon in ZilberChay Watershed. Journal of Water and Soil Science, 20(76), 207-218. [In Persian] http://dx.doi.org/10.18869/acadpub.jstnar.20.76.207

Kaveh, A., Mahdian, M. H., Parvizi, Y., Sokouti Oskouei, R., & Masihabadi, M. H. (2014). Investigating effects of topography, soil and climate factors on soil organic carbon storage in drylands of Kermanshah Province. Desert Management, 2(4), 51-65. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22034/jdmal.2014.16659

Kazemi Rad, L., & Mohammadi, H. (2016). Climate change assessment by using LARS-WG model in Gilan Province (Iran). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 4(4), 55-74. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v4i4.38892

Köchy, M., Don, A., van der Molen, M. K., & Freibauer, A. (2015). Global distribution of soil organic carbon–Part 2: Certainty of changes related to land use and climate. Soil, 1(1), 367-380. https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-367-2015

Komarov, A., Chertov, O., Bykhovets, S., Shaw, C., Nadporozhskaya, M., Frolov, P., ... & Zubkova, E. (2017). Romul_Hum model of soil organic matter formation coupled with soil biota activity. I. Problem formulation, model description, and testing. Ecological Modelling, 345, 113-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.007

Krause, P., Boyle, D. P., & Bäse, F. (2005). Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences, 5, 89-97. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005

Li, J., Shi, J., Zhang, D. D., Yang, B., Fang, K., & Yue, P. H. (2017). Moisture increase in response to high-altitude warming evidenced by tree-rings on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Climate Dynamics, 48, 649-660. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3101-z

Li, P., Wang, Q., Endo, T., Zhao, X., & Kakubari, Y. (2010). Soil organic carbon stock is closely related to aboveground vegetation properties in cold-temperate mountainous forests. Geoderma, 154(3-4), 407-415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2009.11.023

Mansuri, E., Karimi, A., Emamy, H., & Parvizi, Y. (2017). Investigation the Factors affecting soil organic carbon along a gradient climate in Kermanshah Province. Journal of Natural Environment, 70(1), 197-210. https://doi.org/10.22059/jne.2017.134974.1031

Menard, S. (2000). Coefficients of determination for multiple logistic regression analysis. The American Statistician, 54(1), 17-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2000.10474502 

Muñoz-Rojas, M., Abd-Elmabod, S. K., Zavala, L. M., De la Rosa, D., & Jordán, A. (2017). Climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks of Mediterranean agricultural areas: A case study in Northern Egypt. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 238, 142-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.09.001

Nemoto, R. (2010). Long-term soil carbon changes in different agricultural management systems under past and future climate. Doctoral dissertation, University of Bern. https://occrdata.unibe.ch/students/theses/msc/35.pdf

Nieto, O. M., Castro, J., & Fernández-Ondoño, E. (2013). Conventional tillage versus cover crops in relation to carbon fixation in Mediterranean olive cultivation. Plant and Soil, 365, 321-335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-012-1395-0

Njeru, C. M., Ekesi, S., Mohamed, S. A., Kinyamario, J. I., Kiboi, S., & Maeda, E. E. (2017). Assessing stock and thresholds detection of soil organic carbon and nitrogen along an altitude gradient in an east Africa mountain ecosystem. Geoderma Regional, 10, 29-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geodrs.2017.04.002

Papiernik, S. K., Lindstrom, M. J., Schumacher, T. E., Schumacher, J. A., Malo, D. D., & Lobb, D. A. (2007). Characterization of soil profiles in a landscape affected by long-term tillage. Soil and Tillage Research, 93(2), 335-345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2006.05.007

Parton, W. J., Schimel, D. S., Cole, C. V., & Ojima, D. S. (1987). Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 51(5), 1173-1179. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1987.03615995005100050015x

Ponce-Hernandez, R., Koohafkan, P., & Antoine, J. (2004). Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes (Vol. 1). Food & Agriculture Org.

Qiu, W., Li, Q., Lei, Z. K., Qin, Q. H., Deng, W. L., & Kang, Y. L. (2013). The use of a carbon nanotube sensor for measuring strain by micro-Raman spectroscopy. Carbon, 53, 161-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.carbon.2012.10.043

Quideau, S. A. (2002). Organic matter accumulation. Encyclopedia of Soil Science, 26, 1-4.

Ramesh, T., Manjaiah, K. M., Tomar, J. M. S., & Ngachan, S. V. (2013). Effect of multipurpose tree species on soil fertility and CO 2 efflux under hilly ecosystems of Northeast India. Agroforestry Systems, 87, 1377-1388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-013-9645-6

Rampazzo Todorovic, G., Stemmer, M., Tatzber, M., Katzlberger, C., Spiegel, H., Zehetner, F., & Gerzabek, M. H. (2010). Soil‐carbon turnover under different crop management: Evaluation of RothC‐model predictions under Pannonian climate conditions. Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science, 173(5), 662-670. https://doi.org/10.1002/jpln.200800311

Rousta, M. J., Soleimanpour, S. M., Enayati, M., & Pakparvar, M. (2022). Effect of vegetation type and soil chemical properties on the organic carbon content in the soil of flood spreading fields of Kowsar station. https://doi.org/10.52547/ifej.10.19.171

Senthilkumar, S., Kravchenko, A. N., & Robertson, G. P. (2009). Topography influences management system effects on total soil carbon and nitrogen. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 73(6), 2059-2067. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2008.0392

Shakiba, A., & Rahnama, M. (2003). The impact of climate change on soil carbon variations. In Third Regional Conference on Climate Change, Meteorological Organization, Isfahan.[In Persian] https://civilica.com/doc/12499

Shirato, Y., & Yokozawa, M. (2005). Applying the Rothamsted Carbon Model for long-term experiments on Japanese paddy soils and modifying it by simple tuning of the decomposition rate. Soil Science & Plant Nutrition, 51(3), 405-415. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-0765.2005.tb00046.x

Singh, S. K., Pandey, C. B., Sidhu, G. S., Sarkar, D., & Sagar, R. (2011). Concentration and stock of carbon in the soils affected by land uses and climates in the western Himalaya, India. Catena, 87(1), 78-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2011.05.008

Sinoga, J. D. R., Pariente, S., Diaz, A. R., & Murillo, J. F. M. (2012). Variability of relationships between soil organic carbon and some soil properties in Mediterranean rangelands under different climatic conditions (South of Spain). Catena, 94, 17-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2011.06.004

Smith, P., Smith, J. U., Powlson, D. S., McGill, W. B., Arah, J. R. M., Chertov, O. G., ... & Whitmore, A. P. (1997). A comparison of the performance of nine soil organic matter models using datasets from seven long-term experiments. Geoderma, 81(1-2), 153-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(97)00087-6

Soleimani, A., Hosseini, S. M., Bavani, A. R. M., Jafari, M., & Francaviglia, R. (2017). Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran). Science of The Total Environment, 599, 1646-1657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.077

Su, X., Yan, X., & Tsai, C. L. (2012). Linear regression. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics, 4(3), 275-294. https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1198

TerraClimate.https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/TERRACLIMATE/index_directDownloads.php

Walkley, A., & Black, I. A. (1934). An examination of the Degtjareff method for determining soil organic matter, and a proposed modification of the chromic acid titration method. Soil Science, 37(1), 29-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00010694-193401000-00003

Wan, Y., Lin, E., Xiong, W., & Guo, L. (2011). Modeling the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon stock in upland soils in the 21st century in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 141(1-2), 23-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.02.004

Wang, J., Wang, X., Xu, M., Feng, G., Zhang, W., & Lu, C. A. (2015). Crop yield and soil organic matter after long-term straw return to soil in China. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 102, 371-381. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-015-9710-9

Yang, Y., Mohammat, A., Feng, J., Zhou, R., & Fang, J. (2007). Storage, patterns and environmental controls of soil organic carbon in China. Biogeochemistry, 84, 131-141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-007-9109-z

Yokozawa, M., Shirato, Y., Sakamoto, T., Yonemura, S., Nakai, M., & Ohkura, T. (2010). Use of the RothC model to estimate the carbon sequestration potential of organic matter application in Japanese arable soils. Soil Science & Plant Nutrition, 56(1), 168-176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-0765.2009.00422.x

Zhang, J., Bei, S., Li, B., Zhang, J., Christie, P., & Li, X. (2019). Organic fertilizer, but not heavy liming, enhances banana biomass, increases soil organic carbon and modifies soil microbiota. Applied Soil Ecology, 136, 67-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2018.12.017

Zhang, Y., Ai, J., Sun, Q., Li, Z., Hou, L., Song, L., ... & Shao, G. (2021). Soil organic carbon and total nitrogen stocks as affected by vegetation types and altitude across the mountainous regions in the Yunnan Province, south-western China. Catena, 196, 104872. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104872

Zhao, Y. G., Liu, X. F., Wang, Z. L., & Zhao, S. W. (2015). Soil organic carbon fractions and sequestration across a 150-yr secondary forest chronosequence on the Loess Plateau, China. Catena, 133, 303-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.05.028

Zhu, B., Wang, X., Fang, J., Piao, S., Shen, H., Zhao, S., & Peng, C. (2010). Altitudinal changes in carbon storage of temperate forests on Mt Changbai, Northeast China. Journal of Plant Research, 123, 439-452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10265-009-0301-1    

Zimmermann, M., Leifeld, J., & Fuhrer, J. (2007). Quantifying soil organic carbon fractions by infrared-spectroscopy. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 39(1), 224-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2006.07.010