Forecasting the Vulnerability of Khash City Due to Storm Hazard by Gamble Method and Partial Series

Piryan Kalat, Omid; Jamshidzehi, Javad; Ziari, Keramatollah; Shafie Kenari, Reza

doi:10.22067/geoeh.2023.81449.1337

Forecasting the Vulnerability of Khash City Due to Storm Hazard by Gamble Method and Partial Series

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

² Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran.

³ Department of Human Geography and Planning , Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran,Iran.

10.22067/geoeh.2023.81449.1337

Abstract

This study aims to predict the vulnerability caused by hurricane crises and highlights the importance of effective crisis management in Khash City. Using a storm threshold speed of 15 m/s, the monthly, seasonal, and annual wind patterns of Khash City were analyzed with WRPLOT 8.0.2 software. To predict storm return periods for intervals ranging from 1 to 100 years, the Gumbel method and partial series method were applied based on the latest recorded data (1986–2018).
The analytical results revealed that storm return periods were predicted with greater intensity using the partial series method compared to the Gumbel method. For the 100-year return period, the Gumbel method estimated the most severe monthly storms with intensities of 29.1 m/s, while the partial series method predicted stronger storms with intensities of 32.2 m/s, 31.7 m/s, and 30.4 m/s.
The results suggest that the partial series method provides a more reliable prediction of hurricanes than the Gumbel distribution. This method's higher upper-limit estimates are particularly valuable for ensuring the safety of structures and for developing strategies to reduce human and financial losses. Consequently, the partial series method is recommended for hurricane prediction and optimal crisis management planning in Khash City.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Risk management

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