Forecasting Hazardous Heat Waves in East Azerbaijan by Modeling the Sixth Climate Change Report

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• sayyed mohammad hosseini ¹
• farahnaz khoramabadi ²

¹ Assistant Professor of Climatology, Sayyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi University, Asadabad, Iran.

² Tabriz University

10.22067/geoeh.2022.78997.1284

Abstract

Heat waves are among the most dangerous weather threats related to global warming and climate change. Two databases were used to predict the spatial changes in the intensity of heat waves in East Azarbaijan province. The daily data of the maximum temperature in 5 synoptic stations of the province inlcuding Tabriz, Maragheh, Jolfa, Ahar and Mianeh for the time period from 1981 to 2021 AD as the period of historical-base data were used. The output of the selected CanESM model under the dual economic-social scenario SSP1 is the result of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the future period from 2022 to 2065. The validation of the data of the basic period with the future period was done with standard measures and with the step-by-step regression technique, the intensity of heat waves in the province was explained. The results indicate that the intensity of heat waves will increase until 2065 in all the investigated stations and it will cover a large area of ​​the province. So, in the next half of the century, the intensity of heat waves in Tabriz will be 1.3 °C, in Maragheh will be 1 °C, in Julfa will be 0.7 °C, in Ahar will be 1 °C and in Mianeh it will be 1.4 °C. Moreover, with the warming of the earth's air due to the impact of global climate changes, smaller heat waves join together and will create more intense, bigger, and lasting heat waves. The results showed that with the decrease in latitude in this province and the proximity to low-lying and low-altitude areas, the frequency and intensity of heat waves will also increase.

Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Modeling
• Dangerous Heat Waves
• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
• East Azerbaijan

20.1001.1.23221682.1402.12.2.7.8

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