Flood risk assessment using fuzzy logic and HEC-HMS: The case of Ojan Chay

Document Type : Research Article

Author

• Marziyeh Esmaeilpour

Associate professor in Climatology, University of Maragheh,, Maragheh, Iran

10.22067/geoeh.2023.82202.1359

Abstract

In the current study the flood risk in the Ojan Chay basin, which is situated in the province of East Azarbaijan, Bostan-Abad, was assessed. 16 spatial variables influencing the probability of flooding were taken into account, integrated, and examined using fuzzy logic within the geographic information system framework in order to extract the risk map. The application of the fuzzy gamma operator to the overlapping thematic maps revealed that about 4.8% of the basin's area falls into the high risk category. A considerable portion of these areas match the basin's major river beds and the surrounding terrain. The class with high risk is also located mostly in the vicinity of the mentioned class and includes more than 16.6% of the area of ​​the study area. Floods with a ten-year or longer return period may damage these areas. In the high risk class, there are roughly 2.3% of residential areas with an area of 11.1 hectares. However approximately 42.9% with an area of ​​35.9 hectares are located in the high risk class. The HEC-HMS model was employed in the second phase of the study to simulate rainfall-runoff and pinpoint sub-basins with high potential for runoff generation. The findings demonstrated that geomorphometric features and land cover have a significant impact on the flood hydrograph of the sub-basins and the basin's output. High slope, low permeability, a high concentration of rocky outcrops, impermeable surfaces, and the least amount of protective cover are the characteristics of sub-basins that exhibit high peaks. The upstream sub-basins with the highest peak discharge are 1, 3, 7, 11, and 12.

Keywords

• Flood risk assessment
• Flood hazard mapping
• Geographic Information System (GIS)
• HEC-HMS model
• Ojan Chay basin
• Northwest Iran

Main Subjects

• Climatic and atmospheric hazards

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©2025 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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