بررسی پیش‌نشانگر ناهنجاری حرارتی در زمین‌لرزة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مصطفی حیدری ¹
• احمد مزیدی ²
• ایمان روستا ²

¹ کارشناس ارشد سنجش‌ازدور، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

² دانشیار اقلیم‌شناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

10.22067/geoeh.2023.83439.1397

چکیده

گرم شدن هوا و زمین پیش از رخداد زلزله‌ها، پیش‌نشانگری است که از دوران باستان شناخته شده است. امروزه درستی این افسانه، با عنوان علمی ناهنجاری حرارتی، در زلزله‌های بسیاری به اثبات رسیده است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی بروز این ناهنجاری در دورة بلندمدت سه سالة پیش از زلزلة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه با روش ساده انحراف از میانگین متحرک است. نتایج نشان داد که در یکی دو هفته پیش از رخداد این زلزله، هم در پارامتر‌های هواشناسی دمای هوا، دمای خاک و رطوبت هوا در ایستگاه همدید تازه‌آباد و هم در پارامتر ماهواره‌ای دمای سطح زمین، ناهنجاری روزانة کم‌سابقه یا بی‌سابقه‌ای رخ داده است. این ناهنجاری‌ها حرارتی می‌تواند با رخداد زلزله در پیوند باشد. بررسی مکانی ناهنجاری در دمای سطح زمین که ۱۵ روز پیش از زلزله رخ داده بود، روشن ساخت که در آن روز، مرز خشکی دو صفحه عربستان و اوراسیا در غرب ایران، گرم بوده و ناحیه‌ای داغ در مرکز عراق با کشیدگی به سمت رومرکز زلزله پدیدار شده است. دیگر آزمون‌ها نشان داد این روش ساده کشف ناهنجاری، قادر به شناسایی ناهنجاری حرارتی پیش از زلزله‌های ۱۳۸۲ بم و ۱۳۸۹ محمدآباد ریگان، هر دو در استان کرمان نیز هست. زلزله ازگله، شاخصی برای زلزله‌های منطقة فعال و پرجمعیت زاگرس است. امید این دست پژوهش‌ها، شناخت بهتر پیش‌نشانگر‌های زلزله در هر منطقه با هدف تحقق رؤیای پیش‌بینی زلزله است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ناهنجاری حرارتی
• پیش‌بینی زلزله
• پیش‌نشانگرهای زلزله
• دمای سطح زمین
• روش انحراف از میانگین متحرک
• زاگرس ایران

موضوعات

• تغییر اقلیم

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©2025 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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