Simulation and forecasting of some climatic variables by SDSM multiple linear model and RCP scenarios in Hajiler watershed

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Seyedasdollah Hejazi ¹
• Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Moghaddam ²
• Fariba Karami ³
• Jamshid Yarahmadi ⁴
• Ali Bigham ³

¹ Tabriz University

² University of Tabriz

³ Tabriz university

⁴ agricultural research education and extension organization

10.22067/geoeh.2022.75404.1206

Abstract

Statistical downscaling methods are used to generate real rainfall values in an environmental range by simulating atmospheric. The purpose of this study is to predict the climatic elements of temperature and precipitation of Ahar synoptic station with SDSM model and using the output of CanESM2 climate change model in three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for four periods of 2020-2040, 2039 - 2060, 2059-2079 and 2080-2099.Also, statistical indices of mean square error root (RMSE) and absolute error (MAE) were used and The annual trend of these changes has been studied using Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests. The results of the predictions showed that in the scenarios of RCP2.6 and 4.5 in the spring the amount of precipitation decreases by 14 to 5 mm. According to scenarios RCP2.6 and 4.5, precipitation will decrease in spring, and according to scenario RCP 8.5, it will increase in April and May, and again in June, precipitation will decrease at the end of this period in June in all periods. And all the scenarios, especially in scenario 8.5, show themselves strongly. Also, the average maximum temperature from 0.1 to 1.56 ° C, the average minimum temperature from 0.4 to 1.54 ° C in all three scenarios will increase over time . The temperature increase trend in all scenarios in the first months of January and February with a gentle slope and soon with the beginning of the warm months from March to November, the growth trend in all periods will accelerate more than the base period. In terms of seasonal rainfall in all scenarios, the amount of rainfall in the wet months decreases and increases in the cold months, and in the case of temperature elements throughout the year, this trend will be significant and increasing.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• SDSM
• RCP Scenarios
• downscaling
• Hajiler

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