بررسی پیش‌نشانگر ناهنجاری حرارتی در زمین‌لرزة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد سنجش‌ازدور، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 دانشیار اقلیم‌شناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

گرم شدن هوا و زمین پیش از رخداد زلزله‌ها، پیش‌نشانگری است که از دوران باستان شناخته شده است. امروزه درستی این افسانه، با عنوان علمی ناهنجاری حرارتی، در زلزله‌های بسیاری به اثبات رسیده است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی بروز این ناهنجاری در دورة بلندمدت سه سالة پیش از زلزلة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه با روش سادة انحراف از میانگین متحرک است. نتایج نشان داد که در یکی دو هفته پیش از رخداد این زلزله، هم در پارامتر‌های هواشناسی دمای هوا، دمای خاک و رطوبت هوا در ایستگاه همدید تازه‌آباد و هم در پارامتر ماهواره‌ای دمای سطح زمین، ناهنجاری روزانة کم‌سابقه یا بی‌سابقه‌ای رخ داده است. این ناهنجاری‌ها حرارتی می‌تواند با رخداد زلزله در پیوند باشد. بررسی مکانی ناهنجاری در دمای سطح زمین که ۱۵ روز پیش از زلزله رخ داده بود، روشن ساخت که در آن روز، مرز خشکی دو صفحة عربستان و اوراسیا در غرب ایران، گرم بوده و ناحیه‌ای داغ در مرکز عراق با کشیدگی به سمت رومرکز زلزله پدیدار شده است. دیگر آزمون‌ها نشان داد این روش سادة کشف ناهنجاری، قادر به شناسایی ناهنجاری حرارتی پیش از زلزله‌های ۱۳۸۲ بم و ۱۳۸۹ محمدآباد ریگان، هر دو در استان کرمان نیز هست. زلزلة ازگله، شاخصی برای زلزله‌های منطقة فعال و پرجمعیت زاگرس است. امید این دست پژوهش‌ها، شناخت بهتر پیش‌نشانگر‌های زلزله در هر منطقه با هدف تحقق رؤیای پیش‌بینی زلزله است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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