ارزیابی خطر سیلاب در حوضه آبریز اوجان‌چای با استفاده از منطق فازی و مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• مرضیه اسمعیل پور

دانشیار اقلیم‌شناسی در برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

10.22067/geoeh.2023.82202.1359

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر خطر سیلاب در سطح حوضه اوجان­ چای، واقع در شهرستان بستان­ آباد استان آذربایجان شرقی، ارزیابی شد. برای تهیه نقشه خطر تعداد 16 متغیر مکانی تأثیرگذار بر وقوع سیلاب موردتوجه قرار گرفته و در بستر سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی با استفاده از منطق فازی ترکیب و تحلیل شدند. نتایج همپوشانی با کاربست اپراتور گامای فازی نشان داد بالغ بر 8/4 درصد از مساحت حوضه در کلاس با خطر بسیار زیاد قرار گرفته است. بخش قابل‌توجهی از این پهنه ­ها منطبق بر بستر رودخانه­ های اصلی حوضه و اراضی پیرامون آن‌هاست. کلاس با خطرپذیری زیاد نیز عمدتاً در مجاورت کلاس مذکور قرار گرفته و بالغ بر 6/16 درصد مساحت حوضه مطالعاتی را شامل می­ شود. این پهنه­ ها می ­توانند توسط سیلاب ­های با دوره بازگشت 10 سال و بالاتر تحت تأثیر قرار گیرند. حدود 2/3 درصد از مناطق مسکونی با مساحتی بالغ 1/11 هکتار در کلاس با خطرپذیری بسیار زیاد و حدود 9/42 درصد با مساحتی بالغ بر 9/35 هکتار در کلاس با خطرپذیری زیاد واقع شده ­اند. در بخش دوم تحقیق از مدل HEC-HMS به­ منظور شبیه ­سازی بارش- رواناب و شناسایی زیرحوضه­ های با پتانسیل تولید رواناب بالا استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد هیدروگراف سیلاب زیرحوضه ­ها و خروجی حوضه تا حد زیادی تحت تأثیر ویژگی­ های ژئومورفومتری و پوشش زمین است. پیک­ های بالا در زیرحوضه­ های با کمترین میزان پوشش حفاظتی، شیب زیاد، نفوذپذیری کم، فراوانی برون­زدهای سنگی و سطوح غیرقابل نفوذ مشاهده می ­شود. می ­توان به زیرحوضه ­های بالادست ازجمله 1، 3، 7، 11 و 12 اشاره کرد که از بالاترین میزان دبی پیک برخوردارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ارزیابی خطر سیلاب
• نقشه‌سازی خطر سیلاب
• سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)
• مدل HEC-HMS
• حوضه اوجان‌چای
• شمال‌غرب ایران

موضوعات

• مخاطرات اقلیمی و اتمسفریک

---

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

مراجع

Ajin, R. S., Krishnamurthy, R. R, Jayaprakash, M., & Vinod, P. G. (2013). Flood Hazard Assessment of Vamanapuram River Basin, Kerala, India: An Approach Using Remote Sensing & GIS Techniques. Advances in Applied Science Research, 4(3), 263–274. https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=2331182
Ali Mohammad,J.K., Aslam, I., & Khan, Z. (2011). Simulation of the Impacts of Landuse Change on Surface Runoff of Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan. Landscape and Urban Planning, 102(4), 271–279.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.05.006
Allafta, H., & Opp, C. (2021). GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Analysis for Flood Prone Areas Mapping in the Trans-Boundary Shatt Al-Arab Basin, Iraq-Iran, Geomatics. Natural Hazards and Risk,12(1), 2087-2116. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1955755
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (CRED, UNISDR)(2015). The Human Cost of Natural Disasters 2015: A Global Perspective, Report available at https://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-naturaldisasters-2015-global-perspective
Chen, Y., Liu, R.D., Barrett, D., Gao, L., Zhou, M., Renzullo, L., & Emelyanova, I. (2015). A Spatial Assessment Framework for Evaluating Flood Risk under Extreme Climates. Science of the Total Environment, 538, 512-523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.094
Dung, N.B., Long, N.Q., Tran, A.D., & Tuyet, M.D. (2021). Multi-Geospatial Flood Hazard Modelling for a Large and Complex River Basin with Data Sparsity: A Case Study of the Lam River Basin, Vietnam. Earth Systems and Environment, 6 (20), 715-731.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00215-8
Dung NB, Tuyet MD, Ahmad A, Long NQ. (2020). The Role Of Relative Slope Length In Flood Hazard Mapping Using Ahp And Gis (Case Study: Lam River Basin, Vietnam). Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 13(2): 118 126. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2020-48
Ganji, K., Gharechelou, S., & Ahmadi, A. (2022). Determining Effective Factors on Gorganrood River Flooding and Micro-Zoning of Flood Risk Analysis in Aq’Qala County Using AHP Method. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10(4), 25-46. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2021.68419.1011
Ghanavati, E., Karam, A., & Aghaalikhani, M. (2013). Flood Risk Zonation in the Farahzad Basin (Tehran) Using Fuzzy Model. Geography and Environmental Planning, 23(4), 121-138. [In Persian] https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20085362.1391.23.4.8.2
Hydrologic Engineering Center. (2013). HEC-GeoHMS, Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension. US Army Corps of Engineers.
Hydrologic Engineering Center. (2016). Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS. US Army Corps of Engineers.
Iwahashi, J., Pike, R.J. (2007). Automated Classifications of Topography from DEMs by an Unsupervised Nested-Means Algorithm and a Three-Part Geometric Signature.Geomorphology, 86(3-4), 409–440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.09.012
Jahanbakhsh Asl, S., Asad, M., & Akbari, E. (2016). The Potential Evaluation of Wind Power Plants by Using the Fuzzy- AHP Methods in GIS (Case Study: North East of IRAN).Journal of Geography and Planning, 20(56), 55-72. [In Persian]
https://geoplanning.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_4981.html
Kourgialas, N.N., Karatzas, G.P. (2011). Flood Management and a GIS Modelling Method to Assess Flood-Hazard Areas—A Case Study. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(2), 212-225. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.555836
Kumar, S., Gupta, S. (2016). Geospatial Approach in Mapping Soil Erodibility Using CartoDEM– A Case Study in Hilly Watershed of Lower Himalayan Range. Journal of Earth System Science, 125, 1463–1472. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0738-2
Lee, S. (2007). Application and Verification of Fuzzy Algebraic Operators to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping. Environmental Geology 52, 615–623. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0491-y
Liu, J.G., & Mason, P.J. (2009). Essential Image Processing and GIS for Remote Sensing. New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118687963
Luca, F., Conforti, M., & Robustelli, G. (2011). Comparison of GIS-based Gullying Susceptibility Mapping Using Bivariate and Multivariate Statistics: Northern Calabria, South Italy.Geomorphology, 134(3-4), 297-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.006
Mazidi, A., & Kooshki, S. (2015). Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Process and Estimate of Flood with HEC-HMSModel in Khorramabad Catchment Area. Geography and Development, 13(41), 1-10. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2015.2236
Mesri Alamdari, P. (2021). Spatial Analysis of Flood Hazard in Ajabshir Ghaleh Chay Catchment using GIS and HEC-HMS Model. Quantitative Geomorphological Research, 10(1), 93-111. [In Persian] https://www.geomorphologyjournal.ir/article_134562.html
Modaresi, F. & Araghinejad, Sh. (2017) Practical training of the hydrological modelling of the watershed in HEC-HMS and HEC-GeoHMS, Noavar publication.
Moradnezhadi, M., Jourgholami, M., & Malekian, A. (2015). Evaluating the HEC-HMS Hydrologic Model in Order to Simulating Flood Hydrograph in Forest Basin (Case Study: Kheyrud Forest). Forest and Wood Products, 68(3), 625-639. [In Persian]
https://doi.org/10.22059/jfwp.2015.55594
Nandalal, H.K., Ratnayake, U.R. (2011). Flood Risk Analysis Using Fuzzy Models. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 4, 128–139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01097.x
Qin C.Z., Zhu, A.X., Pei, T., & Li B.L., Scholten, T., Behrens, T., & Zhou, C.H. (2011). An Approach to Computing Topographic Wetness Index Based on Maximum Downslope Gradient. Precision Agric 12, 32–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-009-9152-y
Rahimzadeh, Z., & Habibi, M. (2018). Simulation of Hydrograph of Flood with Hydrological Model HEC-HMS and Prediction of Return Period in Kermanshah Ravansar Basin. Geography and Development, 16(53), 175-194. [In persian]
https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2018.4186
Rashetnia, S. (2016). Flood Vulnerability Assessment by Applying a Fuzzy Logic Method: A Case Study from Melbourne. Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering, College of Engineering and Science Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:132844539
Sarvar, H., & Kherizadeh Arouq, M. (2015) Feasibility of optimal physical development of Maragheh city using geographic information system (GIS). Research project, Maragheh University.
Sistani Badooei, M., Negaresh, H., & Fotoohi, S. (2017). Zoning Flood Hazard in the GabrikDrainage Basin. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 6(2), 163-182. [In Persian] https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v6i2.59833
Sui, Y., Lang, X., & Jiang, D. (2018). Projected Signals in Climate Extremes Over China Associated with a 2°C Global Warming Under Two RCP Scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1): 678–697. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5399
Tella, A., & Balogun, A.L. (2020). Ensemble Fuzzy MCDM for Spatial Assessment of Flood Susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria. Nat Hazards, 104, 2277–2306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04272-6
Toya, H., Skidmore, M. (2007). Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters.Econ. Lett, 94 (1), 20–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.020
Yariyan, P., Avand, M., Ali Abbaspour, R., Torabi Haghighi, A., Costache, R., Ghorbanzadeh,O., Janizadeh, S., & Blaschke, T. (2020). Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using an Improved Analytic Network Process with Statistical Models. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 2282-2314. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1836036
Yousefi, H., Golshan, M., & Pirnia, A. (2018). Performance of HEC-HMS Hydrological Model in Simulation of Flood Hydrograph in Arid and Humid Watersheds. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 5(1), 319-330. [In Persian] https://doi.org/ 10.22059/ije.2018.240802.715
Zare, M., Azari, M., & Rezaei Arefi, M. (2024). Comparison of different multi-criteria decision-making methods for prioritization of flood source areas in Kashafrood basin. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2024.88777.1498