@article { author = {Khosravi, Mohsen and Jamali, Ali Akbar}, title = {Forecasting the Trend of Landslide Changes in the Northern Region of Quchan with Regard to the Factors Affecting Landslide Using Neural Network, Cellular Automata-Markov, and Regression Logistics}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {1-17}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.71520}, abstract = {Introduction The landslide is one of the types of mass movements. It consists of the fast or slow movement of stone, soil or the sum of both on the slope downward. Many studies have been carried out by geomorphologists to understand the factors affecting mass movements. However, due to the complexity of such movements and the impact of several factors on it, there is still no definitive and sufficient result in this regard. Generally, many factors can be considered effective in mass movements such as the genus of formation, type of surface materials, topographic conditions (e.g., gravity, slope steepness and aspect), aggregate formation, tectonic condition (proximity to fault), climatic conditions (e.g., rain, surface water, soil moisture), and type of land use (e.g., urban, rural, agriculture, road, and so on). The objective of this study is to forecast the trend of landslide changes with regard to the factors affecting the landslide by neural network, cellular automata-Markov, and regression logistics. Area of study The studied area is part of the Tabarkabad basin, one of the main sources of the Atrak river basin located in the north of the city of Quchan and between the east longitudes 58 30 to 59 and north latitudes 37 to 37 20. Geologically, Tabarakabad Basin is part of the Kope-Dagh basin. The basin's boundary is determined by the mountains of Allah Akbar and the anticline of Zobar. The average height of this basin is 1885m, and the average slope is about 23%. In addition, about 50% of the slope of the basin is between 20 to 40 degrees.   Materials and methods Landslides in the area Landslide dispersion map in all landslide studies from the identification, monitoring, zoning of sensitivity and especially risk assessment, and landslide risk is an integral part and as a basic and important layer. Landslide susceptibility map using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model The MLP method in the land-change model is used because this model creates a network of neurons based on the input and output variables. The number of input neurons is equal to the number of variables (10 neurons) and the output neurons is equal to maps for each two classes (landslide and no landslide) as change trend probability. After a given number of repetitions, it is possible to get the lowest root mean square (RMS) error the network uses half of the data for training and with half the other data; it tests the network and gives the least error and most accuracy. After obtaining the highest accuracy of the training and testing of the network, the potential conversion map is provided. These maps determine the likelihood of converting applications into one another. It also describes the degree of effectiveness of each variable in the model. In this case, land use and geological type have the highest effect and the direction of gradient has the lowest role in the accuracy of 80% prediction. Then, a landslide prediction probability trend change map will be produced.   Landslide susceptibility map using the logistic regression model By executing the model and using the probability map, we can identify areas with more potential, also with the proposed logistic function; the model can be used to measure the impact of each independent variable in the model. The positive coefficients have a greater effect and negative coefficients without effect in the model. Considering these land use coefficients, slope, elevation, and ultimately geological type of the area have the highest effect.   Prediction of landslide changes using the Cellular Automata, CA-Markov method CA-Markov provides the images of classified landslides which are analyzed and output in the form of a probabilistic matrix of variations and an output image of the probability matrix of variations for the horizon. The probability change matrix indicates that the probability of each class of landed slip usage in the future will change to another Discussion and Results In the present study, landslide changes in a part of the Tabarkabad basin in northern Quchan in three periods of 2006, 2010, and 2016 with Google Earth satellite imagery, landslide-mapping using the multi-layer perceptron neural network, logistic regression, also the application of the Markov forecasting model and the modeling approach of land change modeler (LCM) of landslide changes were predicted for 2032. Comparison of landslide maps in the mentioned periods indicating an increase in the level of landslide areas. Considering topographic and geological characteristics and climatic conditions governing the area. In addition, the issue of intensifying land use change over the past decade has expanded in scope fluctuations. The results of geological maps of most of the area are located on the Sanganeh and Sarcheshmeh formations. The effect of land use on landslides has a direct effect. Factors such as the spread of rainfed land, the degradation of grasslands, and the development of drainage systems from rivers to slopes have been one of the most important reasons for landslide due to land use. The results showed that, due to the loosening of formations, land use change to poor pastures and agricultural lands, rainfalls increased. Also with Increasing, the altitude (above 1750 m) has reduced the risk of occurrence due to a decrease in gradient. Conclusion Finally, in order to evaluate and compare the results, a hybrid model of laminated perception neural network, logistic regression, CA-Markov model for modeling and predicting landslide changes. The predicted results of the three models indicate that the combined model of multi-layer perceptron neural network with a Kappa coefficient of 0.96 was better than the logical regression models and CA-Markov with Kappa coefficients of 0.86 and 0.72. Using a hybrid model of multilayer perceptron neural network for 2016, a prediction map was prepared and according to the acceptable accuracy of the model for the year 2032, a landslide prediction map was extracted.}, keywords = {GIS,Landslide,Neural Network,Markov,Forecast,LCM}, title_fa = {پیش‌بینی روند تغییرات زمین‌لغزش منطقه شمال قوچان با توجه به عوامل مؤثر بر لغزش به روش شبکه عصبی، اتوماتای سلولی- مارکوف و رگرسیون لجستیک}, abstract_fa = {زمین‌لغزش از عمده مخاطرات طبیعی است که هرساله باعث خسارت­های جانی و مالی فراوانی می‏شود؛ بدین دلیل پرداختن به موضوع شناسایی علل و دلایل ایجاد آن و ارائه راهکار جهت کاهش این خسارت­ها از اهمیت خاص برخوردار است. منطقه شمال قوچان در ایران به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیایی، ویژگی‏های طبیعی و زمین‌شناختی و همچنین تغییر کاربری شدید زمین یکی از مناطق مستعد بروز زمین‌لغزش است. به‌منظور شناسایی و تعیین مناطق حساس به لغزش با کمک گرفتن از عوامل مؤثر در آن با استفاده از روش شبکه عصبی، روش آماری مارکوف و رگرسیون لجستیک این پژوهش انجام شد. نقشه زمین‌لغزش موجود با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای گوگل ارث برای سال‌های 2004،2010 و 2016 تهیه شد و به دو کلاس، محل‏های لغزش رخ‌داده و رخ نداده طبقه‌بندی شد. مقایسه نقشه شبیه‌سازی‌شده سال 2016 هر یک از مدل‏ها با نقشه طبقه‌بندی‌شده واقعی نشان داد که شاخص کاپا در نقشه‏های حساسیت لغزش ایجادشده توسط مدل شبکه عصبی چند لایه پرسپترون، مدل مارکوف و مدل رگرسیون لجستیک به ترتیب برابر 0.96، 0.72 و 0.86 است. این بدان معنی است که مدل شبکه عصبی پرسپترون مدل مناسبی برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات زمین‌لغزش در این منطقه است. نتایج نشان داد، با سست شدن سازندها، تغییر کاربری اراضی به سمت مراتع فقیر و اراضی کشاورزی دیم، افزایش شیب خطر رخداد زمین‌لغزش زیاد شده است.}, keywords_fa = {GIS,زمین لغزش,شبکه عصبی,مارکوف,پیش بینی,LCM}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32522.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32522_12db723a283e56acf5a424fc44095dd3.pdf} } @article { author = {Bakhtiyari, Mohsen and komeh, zinat and Memarian, Hadi}, title = {A Comparison of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Artificial Neural Network and Area Density in Quantitative Evaluation and Landslide Susceptibility Mapping within GIS Framework (Case Study: Simereh Homiyan Watershed(}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {19-40}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.67234}, abstract = {Introduction Landslide is one of the major geomorphologic processes affecting the landscape's evolution in mountainous areas, which can lead to the catastrophic events (Hattanji & Moriwaki, 2009). Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) is defined as dividing land into several regions and the classification of these areas, based on the actual or probable degree of susceptibility to landslides or other displacements of slopes (Varnes, 1984). For this purpose, the use of new technologies such as Geographic Information System  and computational intelligence algorithms can be useful in preparing accurate maps of landslide zonation. In this study, three methods including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Area Density were employed as the representatives of two groups of decision making frameworks, i.e. non-deterministic computational and statistical methods in quantitative assessment. The efficiency of these approaches were examined, as well. This study was conducted in a part of Simereh Homiyan watershed with a large number of registered landslides to present an appropriate model for determining a geologic based efficient approach in landslide zonation. . Materials and Methods 2.1. Study Area The study area is located in the west of Lorestan province with a geographical longitude of 47˚  22' to 47˚ 52' and a geographical latitude of 33˚ 34' to 34˚ 9'. The study region with an area of ​​128,000 hectares has an average altitude of 1620 meters above sea level (Baharand and Surri, 2015). 2.1.1. Information Layers In order to determine the effective criteria for landslide susceptibility mapping, we should use the factors that are able to solve the problem, and take into account the local and general situation of the region and existing constraints. The information layers used in this study, based on a consultation with watershed managers and geology experts were topographic layers, vegetation, relative humidity, depth of soil fracture, proximity to river, fault and road, and geological sensitivity layer. 2.1.2. Layer standardization Measurement of criteria in the form of information layers takes place with a wide range of scales. Therefore, the values ​​in the various layers must be converted into the units that are comparable and proportionate. Verification In order to evaluate the accuracy of the results, the data of the landslides recorded in the study area were used based on simple random sampling in the areas with mass movements. Generally, 50% of the landslide records were used to train the employed techniques and the remaining were utilized in validation analysis. Results and Discussion Due to the number of layers provided for this study, the corresponding calculations were performed for each method. In sum, according to the type of training and experimental data used, the accuracy of the three methods used can be considered convincing; however, at the same time, the validity of the ANN and area density is significantly better than that of the FAHP. It could be due to the poor performance of the FAHP in pair comparisons. In other words, the opinions of the experts that should be involved in, impose some uncertainties in FAHP process. The highest accuracy for the ANN can be resulted from the proper functioning of this approach, which has been able to produce appropriate outputs by using appropriate training data and finding the internal relations of the target values ​​and inputs. Conclusion Based on the results, the northern regions of the study area are prone to occurrence of landslide. On the other hand, the values of the verification parameters confirm the higher accuracy of the results of both neural network and surface area densities, respectively, with the overall accuracy of 0.73 and 0.71. Based on the comparison of the results, the FAHP method with a total accuracy of 0.58 shows better performance. In general, the neural network method based on the validation statistics used include general accuracy, user authenticity and manufacturer's accuracy which are respectively with values of 0.73, 0.8, and 0.59 and have the highest accuracy.}, keywords = {Landslide Zonation,Artificial neural network,Density Area,FAHP}, title_fa = {مقایسه سه روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و تراکم سطح در ارزیابی کمی و پهنه بندی حساسیت‏ پذیری زمین لغزش در محیط GIS (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز سیمره هومیان)}, abstract_fa = {پهنه ­بندی حساسیت‏ پذیری زمین ­لغزش به‌عنوان تقسیم ­بندی زمین، برحسب درجۀ حساسیت ‏پذیری واقعی یا بالقوۀ زمین ­لغزش می‌تواند در مدیریت کارآمد بحران یاری دهنده باشد؛ اما ماهیت نامشخص متغیرهای لازم جهت بررسی، تأثیر متفاوت هر متغیر و عدم امکان تعیین مرزهای دقیق نواحی آسیب ‌پذیر، موجب عدم قطعیت در نقشه‌های آسیب‌پذیری می‏گردد. استفاده از فن‏آوری‏های نوین مانند GIS و الگوریتم‏های هوش محاسباتی می‌توانند در تهیه نقشه‌های دقیق‏تر پهنه ‌بندی زمین‌ لغزش مفید واقع گردند. در این مطالعه با هدف پهنه‌ بندی حساسیت ‏پذیری زمین ‌لغزش در حوزه آبخیز سیمره هومیان، به دلیل وقوع زمین‌ لغزش­های متعدد در این منطقه، به مقایسه سه روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی ([1]FAHP)، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و تراکم سطح بر اساس معیارهای مختلفی ازجمله ‏توپوگرافی، پوشش گیاهی، رطوبت نسبی، عمق گسیختگی خاک، فاصله از رودخانه، گسل و جاده و رده مقاومتی زمین پرداخته شده است. بر اساس نتایج به‌ دست ‌آمده نواحی شمالی محدوده مطالعاتی مستعد وقوع حرکات دامنه‏ای هستند؛ از طرفی مقادیر پارامترهای صحت‏ سنجی مؤید دقت بالاتر نتایج دو رویکرد شبکه عصبی و تراکم سطح به ترتیب با مقادیر صحت کلی 73/0 و 71/0 بوده که ناشی از عملکرد بهتر دو روش فوق نسبت به روش FAHP با صحت کلی 58/0 می‌باشد. درمجموع روش شبکۀ عصبی بر اساس آماره ‏های صحت‏ سنجی مورد استفاده شامل، صحت کلی، صحت کاربر و صحت تولید کننده به ترتیب با مقادیر 73/0، 8/0 و 59/0 بالاترین صحت را به خود اختصاص داده است.    }, keywords_fa = {پهنه‌بندی زمین‌لغزش,شبکه عصبی مصنوعی,تراکم سطح,FAHP}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32540.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32540_7a7f0cc1d61b9b3a26ec5f26edccc04e.pdf} } @article { author = {rezaei, parviz}, title = {Determining the Flooding Zone Using GIS and HEC-RAS Hydraulic ModelCase Study: Goharrood River, Rasht}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {41-56}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.69052}, abstract = {1. Introduction Flood zoning determines flood advance, elevation, and characteristics in different return periods. Flood zoning tends to subdivide all areas around the river and flood plains into different hazardous areas in order to control land use and land development. These areas are used to determine land use, identify the area in flood insurance, and establish mandatory restrictions in hazardous areas. Rasht, with an annual precipitation of nearly 1,400 mm, is one of the rainiest areas in Iran. In high intensity and in short time, these precipitations cause river flood in ranges of the river and flooded areas of the city. Flooded streets, houses and urban roads, slowing down of vehicle movements, destruction of urban facilities and many other problems are all results of these precipitations. Using mathematical models, digital elevation models (DEMs), GIS software and HECGeo-RAS extension, flooding zone map is discussed in a part of the main range of the Goharrood River at the beginning of the entrance to its outlet out of Rasht. 2.  Materials and Methods The studied area was a range of the Goharrood River, one of the main branches of the Pirbazar River in Rasht, north of Iran. According to objectives of the study and investigation of the flood zone at the Goharrood riverside, the data included hydrometric statistics of the Lakan station during the statistical period of 1989-2013 (25 years) and river hydrometric characteristics using a 1: 2000 map and field surveys and layers were required to plot a flood zoning map. Using mapped data of the area, including river planning maps at a scale of 1: 2000, bed conditions, such as main flow line of the river, sides and cross sections, etc., geometric data required for simulation determined by TIN map was obtained; then, data were inserted into the HEC-RAS model. Subsequently, flow data and boundary conditions were included in the system and hydraulic calculations were carried out. The results were presented in the form of input formats into the GIS environment and the necessary processing was done using HEC-GeoRas extension. Finally, maps of water depth, water velocity, shear stress and flow power along the river range were plotted. These maps were presented in both GIS and Google Earth for better clarity. These maps precisely presented flood zone with different return periods. Moreover, the ranges of the river in which flood spread and caused watering were identified with the depth of watering and areas with low, medium and high risk of flood. 3.  Results and Discussion To determine flood status of Rasht and Pirbazar Basin, a precipitation map of Rasht was plotted in GIS environment. The results show that the average annual precipitation is 1350 mm in Rasht which can cause flooding and problems such as flooding of streets due to precipitation regime and severe rainfall. Using statistics of the Lakan hydrometric station, maximum instantaneous discharges were determined by Smada software; after analyzing the distribution of Log Pearson Type III, the best statistical distribution was determined to estimate maximum instantaneous discharges in different return periods. Using geographic information system (HEC-GeoRAS), the river planning maps were plotted for physical model of the bed and riversides. Based on mathematical simulations performed by HEC-RAS software and results of the obtained data, the model was developed to determine hydraulic conditions. For this purpose, sections of the river were first identified in the urban environment by considering longitudinal and transverse profiles of the river as well as field observations. Next, the sections were modified according to the shape of adjacent sections and engineering judgment. Finally, the model was run for this condition and the results and output of hydraulic parameters of the model were obtained for discharge with a return period of 50 years. The files generated in the GIS environment using the HECGeoRAS extension included flood maps with a 50-year return period of discharge, indicating a river flood in a 500-meter range in the northern part of the city called Siah Estalakh. This hazardous area is located where the river passes the Shohadaye Gomnam Blvd. Extreme changes in the river's width in this area indicate a flood in this part of the river range. 4.  Conclusion Plotting of flood zoning maps for identifying hazardous areas is one of the first tasks of responsible organizations to deal with floods. Data analysis and results of the model show that the only part of the 15 km range of the Goharrood River which is at risk of flooding with a 50-year return period of discharge is a 500 m range of the river after the Shohadaye Gomnam Blvd northward in Siah Estalakh. Considering land uses of the area, flood-exposed regions were identified as low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk regions. Thus, any structural attempt on this river should be prioritized in this area.}, keywords = {Goharrood River,Flood,HECGeo-RAS extension,Rasht}, title_fa = {تعیین پهنه سیل گیر با استفاده از GIS و مدل هیدرولیکی HEC-RAS (مطالعه موردی: رودخانه گوهررود در محدوده شهر رشت)}, abstract_fa = {یکی از مسائل مهم در مدیریت شهری طراحی درست کانال‌ ها، زهکش­ ها و تخلیه آب ‌های سطحی است. محدوده مورد مطالعه در این تحقیق بازه­ای از رودخانه گوهررود در غرب شهر رشت با جهت جنوب به شمال (حدفاصل لاکانشهر تا نزدیکی محل تقاطع با رودخانه سیاهرود) به طول 15 کیلومتر در شمال ایران در استان گیلان است. عدم رعایت حریم رودخانه به همراه بالا آمدن سطح آب، مسدود شدن کانال­ های زهکشی و شیب کم رودخانه در مناطق شمالی شهر، باعث شده تا زهکشی رواناب ­های سطحی یکی از مشکلات مدیریت کلان‌شهر رشت باشد. بدین منظور داده­های تحقیق با استفاده از الحاقیه HECGeoRAS و نقشه­های پلان رودخانه، ژئومتری بستر و اراضی حاشیه رودخانه گوهررود جمع­آوری و شبیه­سازی شد. در ادامه با تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده­های آماری، دبی ایستگاه لاکان­ با دوره بازگشت­های 2 تا 200 ساله برآورد شده است. سپس با به‌کارگیری اطلاعات ژئومتری بستر و اراضی حاشیه رودخانه در مدل هیدرولیکی HECRAS رفتار هیدرولیکی رودخانه، شبیه­سازی شده و پس از انتقال مجدد به محیط GIS، پهنه سیل­گیر رودخانه ترسیم شده است. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تحقیق و با توجه به نوع کاربری اراضی، نواحی سیل­گیر محدوده مطالعاتی به سه ناحیه با خطرپذیری کم، متوسط و زیاد تقسیم شده­اند. نقشه­های سیلاب تهیه شده دبی با دوره بازگشت 50 ساله حاکی از طغیان رودخانه در یک بازه 500 متری در ناحیه شمالی شهر (سیاه­اسطلخ بعد از گذر رودخانه از بلوار شهدای گمنام) است.}, keywords_fa = {رودخانه گوهروده,سیل,الحاقیهRAS-HECGeo,شهر رشت}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32561.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32561_f32ccd9c23a226be16036907f4bfd30e.pdf} } @article { author = {Ahmadi, Abdolmajid and Fathi, Saeid and akbbari, ebrahim}, title = {Assessment of Urban Resilience against Natural Hazards with an Emphasis on Earthquake and Using Fuzzy Logic and GIS (A Case Study of Urmia City)}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {57-73}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.69540}, abstract = {1-Introduction Nowadays, metropolitan cities in various parts of the world are exposed to natural hazards for various reasons. These hazards are very deathful and have many financial implications, and need preventive and immediate action (Sasanpour & Mostafavand, 2010). Earthquakes are one of the major disasters that can cause physical, economic and social damage around the world (Delavar, Sardarikya, & Zare, 2017). Over the last century, more than 1,000 devastating earthquakes have occurred in several countries around the world and killed millions of people and left huge economic losses and the important thing is that the earthquake death rate is very high in urban areas (Paknejhad, Inanlo, Ardakani, & Ebrahimi 2013). Given that cities are more vulnerable to disasters because of high population density, buildings and infrastructure, the significance of seismic vulnerability assessment in urban areas is greater (Montoya, 2005). A simple framework for assessing the risk of earthquakes is calculating the seismic hazard for the places and linking them to the vulnerability of buildings, infrastructure, communities and facilities at risk (Banica, Rosu, L., Muntele, L., & Grozavu 2017). The physical and structural assessment of the city in terms of resilience to the hazards and especially to the earthquake is extremely important and today in various scientific studies, urban vulnerability to hazards has become a fundamental concept. Accordingly, in this study, the physical resilience of Urmia city against earthquake hazard has been investigated. Materials and Methods This research is an applied one and documentary and library methods of data collection are used. This research has been carried out using ArcGIS software based on location-based data using fuzzy logic. The fuzzy logic theory focuses on the presentation and management of ambiguous information. A fuzzy set is essentially a set that has members with membership degrees between 0 and 1. For this purpose, 10 criteria including population density, construction density, number of building floors, urban land use, distance from faults, urban roads network, electricity, highway network, access to open spaces, access to health centers, and access to relief centers have been selected as research criteria. Having applyed some fuzzy functions such as Linear, Large and Small, these maps are standardized. Finally, weighted maps are integrated together using Fuzzy Gamma 0.9 operator. Results and Discussion In this study, we first mapped the criteria of the survey using different functions of the GIS, and then, in order to standardize these maps, fuzzy functions were applied based on the nature of the layers, the final map has been achieved through overlaying the layers. According to this map, it is known that a large part of the city is in the high-risk areas and it can be said that these areas have less resilience to earthquake hazard. Accurately, 37.8 percent of the total area of ​​the city with a total area of ​​31.5 square kilometers is among high-risk areas. Accordingly, 65% of district 4 with a historical texture and high population is exposed to high risk and districts 2, 3 and 1 with 42, 31 and 30 percent are more resilient against earthquake hazard. Conclusions Urban resilience is a complex concept in modern cities that have the ability to change with new situations, crises, and challenges. This concept has various economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and infrastructural dimensions and it has always overwhelmed the current and future levels of urban people in various ways. unsuitable position of the city skeleton such as inefficient street network, inadequate distribution of open spaces, high urban density, incompatibility of  land use and worn-out buildings,  are effective in increase of the vulnerability, and increase  improvement time of the city. The results of the present research indicate that about 38% of the urban area has a moderate to low resilience, and therefore, they can be called high-risk areas. Regarding urban areas, Zone 4 has the lowest resilience (35%) and Zone 1 with 70% has the highest resilience with regard to ​​earthquake risk. Based on the results, it can be said that improving the level of resilience in the studied area is one of the basic needs of urban management.}, keywords = {تاب آوری شهری,زمین لرزه,GIS,منطق فازی,ارومیه}, title_fa = {ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی با تأکید بر زمین‌لرزه با استفاده از منطق فازی و GIS (مطالعه موردی: شهر ارومیه)}, abstract_fa = {تاب ‌آوری شهری مفهومی نسبتاً جدید و پیچیده بوده که دارای ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی و کالبدی است و می‌تواند برای هر اجتماع و هر نوع بی‌نظمی اعم از طبیعی، انسان‌ساخت یا ترکیبی از آن دو مورداستفاده قرار گیرد. در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی میزان تاب ‌آوری شهر ارومیه در برابر خطر زمین ‌لرزه با بهره ‌گیری از روش فازی و GIS پرداخته ‌شده است و بدین منظور تعداد 10 معیار شامل تراکم جمعیت، تراکم ساختمان ‌ها، تعداد طبقات ساختمان‌ ها، کاربری زمین، دسترسی به فضاهای باز، دسترسی به مراکز درمانی، دسترسی به مراکز امدادرسانی، فاصله از معابر، فاصله از خطوط فشارقوی برق و فاصله از گسل به ‌عنوان معیارهای مورد مطالعه تعیین ‌شده‌اند. نتایج تحقیق نشان از این موضوع دارد که 38 درصد از مساحت شهر دارای تاب ‌آوری متوسط تا پائین بوده و در منطقه خطر قرار دارند و همچنین منطقه 1 شهری با 70 درصد مساحت دارای بیشترین تاب ‌آوری و منطقه 4 با 35 درصد مساحت دارای کم ‌ترین میزان تاب ‌آوری در برابر زمین ‌لرزه است.}, keywords_fa = {تاب آوری شهری,زمین لرزه,GIS,منطق فازی,ارومیه}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32579.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32579_d6435a22c527924cf6cbb7d34c767fbe.pdf} } @article { author = {Hosseini, SeyedSajjad and Safarnia, Hassan and poorsaeed, mohammadmahdi}, title = {The Relationship between Knowledge Management Related to Earthquake and Resilience (Case study: Trained Volunteers of Sarasiab Neighborhood in Kerman)}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {75-87}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v7i1.58184}, abstract = {Introduction Natural disasters are major challenges to achieve sustainable development of human communities. Earthquakes are a devastating, yet common natural disaster, that cause billions of dollars in property damage and the loss of human life. Pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster reconstruction can significantly reduce the impact of earthquakes on communities. The resiliency of local communities was introduced as a comprehensive approach to reduce the consequences of earthquake, in the International conference of Hyogo in the Japan. The goal of this approach is to reduce the vulnerability of communities and strengthen people to cope with the risks of natural disasters. Knowledge management can play an important role in ensuring the reliability and availability of reliable information to increase resiliency among local communities. In this study trained volunteers of Sarasiab Neighborhood in Kerman have been investigated. Materials and methods The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between knowledge management related to earthquake and resilience. The research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive correlation in terms of the research method. The statistical population included all 140 trained volunteers in Sarasiab neighborhood in Kerman. The sample is 103 individuals who were selected by simple random sampling. In order to collect data, we used two questionnaires; knowledge management related to earthquakes (including four dimensions: Knowledge acquisition, knowledge storage, knowledge sharing, and knowledge utilization) and Resilience questionnaire (including two dimensions, namely, social and economic resilience). Their validity was confirmed by professors and experts and the questions’ reliability was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha. SPSS 21 software was used for data analysis. For testing hypotheses one-sample t-test, two-sample t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. Result and Discussion The results showed that there is a significant positive correlation between knowledge management related to the earthquake and resiliency of trained volunteers in the Sarasiab neighborhood. Moreover, all sub-hypotheses were confirmed, too. On the other hand, the results of pairwise comparison of the means showed that there is no significant difference between males and females in terms of knowledge management, but in terms of knowledge management, there are differences between the experienced and inexperienced groups, and between groups with different levels of education and ages. The means of resilience are different among all the groups. Conclusion The results of this study is in harmony with the results of Goodwin and Partners (2013). The results showed that promoting the level of knowledge is essential to increase resilience against earthquakes and to reduce the impact of earthquakes on communities. Therefore, it is necessary for all organizations to be involved in the management of crisis in order to reduce the consequences of earthquake, and increase the knowledge and awareness of local communities to enhance earthquake resilience.}, keywords = {Crisis Management,knowledge management,Local Communities,Resilience,Kerman}, title_fa = {رابطه میان مدیریت دانش مرتبط با زلزله و تاب‌آوری (مطالعه موردی: داوطلبان آموزش‌دیده محله سرآسیاب کرمان)}, abstract_fa = {در طی چند دهه اخیر، جوامع جهانی برای کاهش خسارات ناشی از وقوع بلایای طبیعی و افزایش توانایی­های اجتماعات محلی سعی در غنا بخشیدن به رویکردهای مدیریت بحران داشتند. به دنبال این تلاش‌ ها، در کنفرانس بین‌المللی هیوگو در ژاپن، تاب ‌آوری جوامع محلی به‌عنوان رویکردی جامع مطرح شد. علاوه براین، بر دانش نیز به‌عنوان ابزاری برای دستیابی به مدیریت بلایای طبیعی اثربخش و کارا، و در پی آن رسیدن به تاب­آوری تأکید شد. از طرف دیگر چون شهر کرمان از نظر وضعیت نسبی بودن خطر زلزله در سطح بسیار زیاد درجه ­بندی شده است، هدف کلی از این تحقیق رابطه میان مدیریت دانش مرتبط با زلزله و تاب‌ آوری می‌باشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- پیمایشی از نوع همبستگی بوده که برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ ها از پرسش‌ نامه استفاده گردید. پرسش‌ نامه مورد استفاده در این تحقیق محقق ساخته می‌باشد که روایی آن توسط استادان راهنما و مشاور و دیگر متخصصین تأیید گردید. همچنین ضریب پایایی پرسش‌نامه ۸۵۱/ برآورد گردید. نمونه آماری این تحقیق ۱۰۳ نفر می‌باشد که با استفاده از جدول مورگان و به روش تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. برای تجزیه ‌وتحلیل داده‌ ها از آزمون ‌های تی تک نمونه ‌ای، تی دو نمونه ‌ای، آنوا و همچنین از آزمون ضریب همبستگی پیرسون برای تأیید یا رد فرضیات استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که میان مدیریت دانش مرتبط با زلزله و تاب ‌آوری رابطه مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد؛ علاوه بر این تمامی فرضیات فرعی نیز مورد تأیید قرار گرفتند. از طرفی دیگر نتایج حاصل از مقایسه میانگین ‌ها حاکی از آن است که میانگین مدیریت دانش بین دو گروه زن و مرد تفاوتی ندارد، اما میانگین مدیریت دانش در گروه ‌های باتجربه و بی‌ تجربه، تحصیلی و سنی متفاوت است و میانگین تاب ‌آوری در بین تمامی گروه‌ها متفاوت است.}, keywords_fa = {مدیریت بحران,مدیریت دانش,اجتماعات محلی,تاب آوری,کرمان}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32598.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32598_a3219d407c0a534f5bf7b63bb598fd14.pdf} } @article { author = {Gholipour, Jamile and Mousavi Baygi, Seyyed Mohammad and Jabbari Nooghabi, Mehdi}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events in Khorasan Razavi Province (Case study: 1975-2013)}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {89-104}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v7i3.67279}, abstract = {Introduction The assessment of extreme climatic events variations due to its effects on the human life, economy, natural ecosystems, and also extensive spatial and temporal changes in recent decades under the impact of global warming have been a major issue around the world (Rosenzweig et al., 2001; Aguilar et al., 2009; Zwiers et al, 2013). Therefore, the main objectives of the present study are to investigate the homogeneity of rainfall data, determine the changes in extreme precipitation events in Khorasan Razavi province, and also calculate the trends and the significance of statistical trends of each of these indicators. The result of this study could be very essential especially for the water resources, agriculture and forestry that are affected by this phenomenon and its climatic changes. Materials and Methods  For this study, we used the long-term daily precipitation data in 3 synoptic stations (i.e., Mashhad, Torbat Heydariye, and Sabzevar) and 6 evaporative stations (i.e., Mareshk, Zoshk Khorasan, Barerye Chahar Bagh, Baghsangan Torbat Jam and Farhadgard Fariman), between the years 1975-2013. Determination of the homogeneity/non-homogeneity, finding the change points and adjusting the rainfall data time series were performed using RHtests-dlyPrcp package. The determination of trends observed in the extreme precipitation indices was done using RClimDex1 package and significance test of the indices was performed using Mann-Kendall’s nonparametric test and the Trend package in R software. In this study, eleven extreme precipitation indicators were calculated and studied for selected stations in Khorasan Razavi. These indicators were approved by the World Meteorological Organization. Generally, extreme precipitation indices are classified in two categories; a number of indicators are based on rainfall intensity per mm or mm/days (i.e., contains six indices: PRCPTOT, SDII, R99p/R95p, RX1day/RX5day) and others are based on duration of precipitation or number of precipitation days that are based on days (i.e., contains five indices: CWD, CDD, R1mm/R10mm/R20mm). To determine the significant trends in each of the eleven extreme precipitation indicators for each station, Mann Kendall’s confidence level was considered to be 95%. The test statistic higher than +1.96 and lower than -1.96 indicated a significant trend. Results and Discussion  R1mm, R10mm, RX5day and RX1day indicators showed significant trends (mainly increasing and sometimes decreasing) in most of the stations. PRCPTOT, SDII, R20mm and R95p indicators showed significant trends in half of the stations. In most of these stations, increasing trends were observed except for SDII. CWD, R99p and CCD Indicators showed significant trends only in a few number of stations. These trends were increasing for CDD and decreasing for CWD. Most indicators did not show significant trends while they had slightly decreasing trends. Such indicators showed lower levels than-1.96, and then were not significant at the 95% confidence level. Sabzevar station did not show significant trends in any of the extreme precipitation indicators. Zoshk, Pangaje Abshar and Farhadgard stations showed significant increasing trends with high intensity (great increasing slope) in the most of the indicators. Conclusion  Due to the effect of climate changes, global warming and uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, extreme precipitation indices showed different changes and inconsistency in Khorasan Razavi stations. Some stations showed increasing trends in each index and others showed decreasing trend. Some indicators had significant trends in a station and the others did not. PRCPTOT, SDII, R20mm and R95p indicators showed statistically increasing trends in most stations. However, no indicator showed significant trends in Sabzevar station.  }, keywords = {Climate change,extreme precipitation events,rainfall intensity,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,significant trend}, title_fa = {تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر روند وقایع فرین بارشی ایستگاه‌های منتخب استان خراسان رضوی (مطالعه موردی: 2013-1975)}, abstract_fa = {در دهه‌های اخیر وقایع حدی و یا اصطلاحاً فرین بارش و دما تغییرات چشمگیری از لحاظ مکان، زمان و شدت شاهد بوده‌اند که تعیین چگونگی و مقدار آن به دلیل تأثیری که بر جان و مال بشر و نیز اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی دارد، به یکی از دغدغه‌ها و مشکلات بشر در سراسر جهان تبدیل شده است. افزایش آشکار دمای کره زمین علاوه بر اثر مستقیمی که بر دماهای حدی دارد، باعث تغییراتی در فرکانس و شدت وقوع رخدادهای حدی بارشی می‌شود. در این مطالعه داده‌های روزانه بارش 9 ایستگاه سینوپتیک و تبخیرسنجی فعال که دارای دوره زمانی بلندمدت بودند برای سال‌های 1975-2013 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بررسی همگنی، یافتن نقاط شکست و نیز اصلاح سری‌های زمانی داده‌ها به کمک بسته نرم‌افزاری RHtests-dlyPrcp صورت گرفت. تعیین روندهای مشاهده شده در شاخص‌های بارشی با استفاده از بسته RClimDex1 و تعیین معناداری روند در شاخص‌ها نیز به کمک آزمون آماری ناپارامتری من-کندال و توسط بسته trend صورت گرفت. در این مطالعه تعداد روزهایی از سال که بارش‌های بیشتر از 1 میلی‌متر R1mm و 10 میلی‌متر R10mm را شاهد خواهند بود، و نیز بیشترین مقدار 5 روز RX5day و 1 روز RX1day متوالی بارشی؛ شاخص‌هایی هستند که در اکثر ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه شاهد روندی معنادار هستند (اکثراً افزایشی و برخی کاهشی). شاخص‌های مجموع بارش سالانه PRCPTOT، شدت بارش SDII، تعداد روزهای با بارش بیشتر از 20 میلی‌متر R20mm، روز خیلی مرطوب R95p، در نیمی از ایستگاه‌ها شاهد روندی معنادار هستند که در اکثر این ایستگاه‌ها روند از نوع افزایشی معنادار مشاهده شد (غیر از SDII که غیر از زشک برای تمام ایستگاه‌ها روندی کاهشی دارد). شاخص‌های بیشترین تعداد روزهای تر و خشک متوالی CWD و CDD؛ در تعداد اندکی از ایستگاه‌ها روند معنادار دارد. ایستگاه سبزوار در هیچ‌کدام از شاخص‌های حدی روند معناداری را مشاهده نمی‌کند؛ درحالی‌که ایستگاه‌های زشک، پنگجه آبشار و فرهادگرد در اکثر شاخص‌ها روند معنادار و از نوع افزایشی دارد. رفتار روند رخدادهای حدی در ایستگاه‌های منتخب بسیار نامنظم است؛ مثلاً در دو ایستگاه پنگجه آبشار و باراریه چهارباغ که فاصله مکانی کمی با یکدیگر دارند، رفتار آن‌ها کاملاً ناهمسو است. نتایج این مطالعه تغییرات چشمگیر و ناهمسانی در اندازه و نوع روند در شاخص حدی بارشی، با تغییر مکان ایستگاه نشان می‌دهد.}, keywords_fa = {آزمون آماری ناپارامتری من-کندال,بارش های حدی,تغییر اقلیم,معناداری روند,وقایع حدی بارشی}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32616.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32616_1f4e3196538a84ec1746a9f3288cc327.pdf} } @article { author = {Mahmoudzadeh, Hassan and Naghdbishi, Afsaneh and Momeni, Sahar}, title = {The Impact of Urban Use on Creation of Thermal Islands (Case Study: Mashhad City)}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {105-119}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.68150}, abstract = {Introduction With the development of urbanization, large amounts of agricultural and forest areas are replaced with houses, industrial areas and other infrastructure. The warming of the urban environment is one of the unintentional impacts of unsustainable urban development, which is called the "urban thermal island." In this research, the thermal islands of Mashhad, one of the most important populated tourist centers of Iran that has had a rapid development during the last few decades has been studied. Using OLI and TIRS data from Landsat 8 and a two-window algorithm based on the amount of ground temperature and the amount of  vegetation cover, which is calculated based on vegetation cover index of ground level [1] and vegetation cover on the earth's surface, the thermal level map of Mashhad city was calculated. The results showed that there is a relationship between vegetation index and surface temperature of the earth, which helps us to predict the surface temperature. Using vegetation index and separate window algorithm, it is found that the area 6 has the highest temperature and the lowest green space, and region 12 has the lowest temperature and the highest green space (vegetation). Materials and Methods In this research, we tried to use a satellite image processing method to determine the surface temperature of the areas in the comprehensive plan of Mashhad.  For this purpose, after performing the preprocessing on the image and the necessary corrections to determine the type of usage, the supervised classification method and the maximum probability algorithm were used.  In this classification method each pixel is assigned to a class that has the most probability of belonging to that class (Fatemi & Rezaee, 2010).  In fact, in this method, the variance and covariance of classes are used and each pixel of the image is assigned to the class that most closely resembles it (Alavi Panah, 2002). The images used in this research are related to Landsat 8 and TRS sensors (bands 10 and 11) and OLI (bands 1 through 9) on 2017.6.6 (1396.3.6).  The ground surface temperature was calculated based on the two-window algorithm method.  The two-window algorithm calculates the surface temperature of the earth based on the Land Surface Earth (LSE) and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC). Results and Discussion The results of this study indicate that the surface temperature of the earth is affected by the use of different land surface areas. Also, the results show that by establishing a relationship between the vegetation index such as NDVI and FVC, we can predict ground temperatures to obtain better results. With regard to surface temperature estimation, it is possible to use high-bandwidth resolution image sensors  (Feizizadeh & Dedehban, 2015). Accordingly, the use of a separate window algorithm due to the use of 2 thermal bands is more accurate than the single-window method. In addition to thermal bands, other criteria also affect this algorithm which is based on mathematical relations. As previous studies have indicated, surface temperatures are higher in areas with less vegetation (Feizizadeh.B, Blaschke.T, Nazmfar,H ,Akbari,E and Kohbanani,H,R, 2012) as well as asphalt beds and roofing coatings with a darker color than those of bright colors (green roofs). Conclusion In summary the results of this research can be summarized as follows: In the study of the relationship between land use land surface temperature and vegetation, it was determined that the use of green space at 11 ° C and the use of water at 8 ° C had the lowest surface temperature and residential use at 21 ° C and asphalt coating at 23 ° C Maximum surface temperature. Asphalt pavement agent has a great influence on the creation of thermal islands. The northern parts of Mashhad, the airport, and highways where the amount of asphalt used is high has a higher temperature. Area 6 has the highest temperature and the lowest green space indicating a high density housing area without vegetation and area 12 has the lowest temperature and most green space. By moving from downtown to the foothills around Mashhad factors such as wind and vegetation can lead to lower temperature. The most prominent urban green spaces of Mellat Park are in area 9 and Kouh Sangi in area 8, and due to the remoteness of these green spaces from the industrial areas and the vast areas of Mashhad, the surface temperature is very low. In area 9 of Mashhad (Ab o Bargh Mountains) and the green belt around Mashhad, there is a part of the vegetation of the pastures and grasslands which include a natural vegetation and are better restored by the enclosure and prevented from degradation.  }, keywords = {Urban Thermal Island,NDVI Index,Earth surface temperature,Mashhad}, title_fa = {تأثیر کاربری‌های شهری در ایجاد جزایر حرارتی (مطالعه موردی: شهر مشهد)}, abstract_fa = {با توسعه شهرنشینی، مقادیر زیادی از مساحت مناطق کشاورزی و جنگلی جای خود را به خانه‌ها، مناطق صنعتی و دیگر زیرساخت‌ها می‌دهند. گرم‌تر شدن محیط‌زیست شهری یکی از این آثار ناآگاهانۀ توسعۀ شهری ناپایدار است که "جزیرۀ حرارتی شهری" نامیده می­شود. در این تحقیق جزایر حرارتی شهر مشهد که یکی از مهم‌ترین مراکز جمعیتی و توریستی ایران به شمار می­آید و در طول چند دهه اخیر رشد شهری سریعی داشته، موردمطالعه قرارگرفته است که با استفاده از داده‌های OLI و TIRS لندست ۸ و استفاده از الگوریتم دو پنجره بر اساس مقدار دمای سطح زمین و مقدار کسر پوشش گیاهی سطح زمین (که بر اساس شاخص پوشش گیاهی سطح زمین و پوشش گیاهی جزءبه‌جزء سطح زمین محاسبه می‌شود) نقشه طبقات حرارتی شهر مشهد محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد، بین شاخص پوشش گیاهی و دمای سطحی زمین ارتباطی وجود دارد که به ما کمک می‌کند دمای سطحی را پیش‌بینی کنیم. با استفاده از شاخص پوشش گیاهی و الگوریتم پنجره مجزا مشخص شد، منطقه 6 بیشترین دما و کمترین فضای سبز و منطقه 12 کمترین دما و بیشترین فضای سبز را داراست.}, keywords_fa = {جزیره حرارتی شهری,شاخص NDVI,دمای سطح زمین,مشهد}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32644.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32644_c771ce369ce9af10ab8581877241ff2a.pdf} } @article { author = {Azadi, Yousof and Yazdanpanah, Masoud and Forouzani, Masoumeh and Mahmoudi, Hossein}, title = {Investigating the Factors Affecting the Risk Perception of Exposure to Climate Change: A Case Study of Wheat Farmers in Kermanshah}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {121-134}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.71853}, abstract = {Introduction Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges of the 21st century (Azadi, Yazdanpanah, Forozani & Mahmoudi, 2017; Clayton et al., 2015; Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015; Yazdanpanah & Zobeidi, 2018; Zobeidi, Yazdanpanah, Forouzani, & Khosravipour, 2016) and, in particular, is one of the most important economic, social and environmental threats to human life (Kittipongvises & Mino, 2015; Hidalgo & Pisano, 2010; Zobeidi, Yazdanpanah, Forouzani, & Khosravipour, 2016). According to a report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013 (IPCC), the damage caused by global warming is likely to be irreversible and catastrophic if no global action is quickly taken to stabilize the rise in temperature of the Earth’s surface (Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015). In the meantime, farmers of developing countries are the most highly exposed group to climate change, as many of them live at a subsistence level. Therefore, climate change is a particular source of hazard and risk for farmers (Ahsan & Brandt, 2015; Azadi, Yazdanpanah, Forozani & Mahmoudi, 2018). Hence, understanding public risk perception related to possible consequences of climate change is of paramount importance. Not only does risk perception have an important role in shaping climate policy, it is also central in generating support for initiatives for adaptation and mitigation (Lujala, Lein, & Rød, 2015).  Furthermore, understanding public perception of climate-change seems to be crucial for the implementation of appropriate and effective actions, not only because public concern is the precondition for informing people effectively about climate change risks, but also because it has the enormous potential to increase the public’s willingness to change behaviors and to accept policy measures (Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015). Research investigating farmers' perceptions of climate change risks is growing because understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector (Li, Juhász-Horváth, Harrison, Pinter, & Rounsevell., 2017). Therefore, risk perceptions are crucial factors that affect their farm production, investment and management decisions. Given this subject, the results of this research can help to shape appropriate policies to increase risk perception and farmers' adaptation to climate change (Ullah, Shivakoti, & Ali, 2015). Materials and Methods In this study, a survey research method was used and the main tool for data collection was a questionnaire. Study population was all wheat growers' of Kermanshah county (N=30000). Statistical sample was 380 Wheat growers' determined using Krejcie and Morgan table, and a Multi-Stage Cluster Sampling was also used to collect data from grower using questionnaire. A panel of experts confirmed the face validity of the questionnaire. Moreover, Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients for the pilot study assessment were employed to refine the questions to be prepared for the final questionnaire (0.77 to 0.91). To analyze the information, structural equation modeling and statistical analysis methods were used. They were calculated using SPSS24 and AMOS22 software. To get the required map, Arc GIS9.3 software was applied. Results and Discussion Regarding demographic variables, the age of the participants ranged from 25 to 84 with a mean value of 48.67 years (S.D. = 12.47). The sample consisted of 13 female farmers (3.7%) and 337 male farmers (96.3%). A Pearson correlation test was used to investigate the relationship between all variables. The results revealed a significant relationship between risk perception and other variables, including trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern. We analyzed empirical data from the survey with the help of structural equation modeling. Risk perception was selected as the dependent variable and trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern as independent variables and were entered into the SEM. Path relationships revealed that the variables of trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern have direct effects on the positive risk perception of climate change. Collectively, these variables account for 31 percent of the variability risk perception of climate change. The most effective variable to predict risk perception of farmers in the face of climate change was environmental attitude that has a direct and significant effect on growers' risk perception. Conclusion The aim of this paper was to investigate the factors affecting the risk perception of wheat farmers in Kermanshah County toward climate change. Our analysis revealed that the variables of trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern have direct effects on the positive risk perception of climate change. Collectively, these variables account for 31 percent of the variability risk perception of climate change.}, keywords = {Climate change,Risk perception,Wheat Growers,Kermanshah}, title_fa = {بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر اِدراکِ خطر مواجهه با تغییرات آب و هوایی (موردشناسی: کشاورزان گندم‌کار شهرستان کرمانشاه)}, abstract_fa = {بخش کشاورزی به علت ماهیت آن و تأثیرپذیری آن از تغییرات آب و هوایی با ریسک بسیار زیادی همراه است؛ ازاین‌رو تولیدات کشاورزی و معیشت آنان را تهدید می‌کند. درک خطرات ناشی از تغییرات آب و هوایی از سوی کشاورزان و عوامل مؤثر بر آن برای کاهش و سازگاری با تغییرات آب و هوایی بسیار مهم است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر اِدراکِ خطر کشاورزان گندم‌کار شهرستان کرمانشاه در مواجهه با تغییرات آب و هوایی بود. جامعه‌ آماری پژوهش حاضر، کشاورزان گندم‌کار شهرستان کرمانشاه به تعداد 30000 نفر بودند که تعداد 380 نفر از آن‌ها بر اساس جدول کرجسی و مورگان به‌عنوان نمونه آماری انتخاب شدند. در این پژوهش برای انتخاب نمونه مورد مطالعه از روش نمونه‌گیری چند مرحله‌ای طبقه‌ای خوشه‌ای تصادفی متناسب با حجم جامعه آماری بهره گرفته شد. ابزار گرد‌آوری اطلاعات پرسشنامه‌ای محقق ساخت بود که روایی صوری آن توسط متخصصین مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. پایایی پرسشنامه‌ها نیز با استفاده از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ بررسی و تأیید شد (91/0- 77/0). به‌منظور تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای SPSS24 و AMOS22 و برای به دست آوردن نقشه موقعیت جغرافیایی محدوده مورد نظر از نرم‌افزار Arc GIS9.3 استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از مدل معادله‌های ساختاری نشان داد، متغیرهای اعتماد، دانش، نگرش زیست‌محیطی و نگرانی و دغدغه بر اِدراکِ خطر کشاورزان در مواجهه با تغییرات آب و هوایی اثر دارند. درمجموع این متغیرها 31 درصد از تغییر‌پذیری متغیر اِدراکِ خطر کشاورزان در مواجهه با تغییرات آب و هوایی را تبیین نمودند و بخش عمده‌ای از تغییرپذیری متغیر اِدراکِ خطر کشاورزان توسط متغیر نگرش زیست‌محیطی تبیین شد.}, keywords_fa = {تغییرات آب و هوایی,اِدراکِ خطر,کشاورزان گندم‌کار,کرمانشاه}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32671.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32671_ed727a675ab9154e86b6c39a18bdb33d.pdf} } @article { author = {Hejazizadeh, Zahra and Pazhooh, Farshad and Jafari, Farzaneh}, title = {The Relationship between Severe and Pervasive Droughts and Wet Years in Half East of Iran with Synoptic Troposphere Condition}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {135-160}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.68353}, abstract = {Introduction Drought is a reptile climatic phenomenon whose occurrence is unavoidable in all climates. Because of human and ecosystem dependence on the existence of water and lack of water resources in an arid and semi-arid climate, drought can exacerbate the limitation of water resources even with low intensity and cause countless harmful damages. Drought is different from other natural disasters such as floods, storms and earthquakes. Most of these differences are in the effect of gradual droughts during a relatively long period, the impossibility of accurately determining the time of start and end, and the geographical extent of its effect. On the other hand, the absence of a precise and global accepted definition of drought has added to the complexity and confusion of this phenomenon (Zare et al., 2004).  Generally drought is the unexpected decrease in precipitation over a period of time in an area that is not necessarily dry (Alijani & Kaviani, 2011), and or precipitation reduction relative to the long-term mean (Garajzadeh, 2007). Iran is one of the countries that is located in the desert belt of the earth and in some years will suffer from drought and other years from wetness. Materials and Methods Our research region includes a large part of Iran including desert and dry areas in the east, center and southeast of the country which includes Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Kerman, Yazd, South Khorasan, Qom, southern half of Khorasan Razavi province, Isfahan and Semnan provinces. The data of 35 ground stations used in the research include daily rainfall data for the period 1985-2014 located in 9 provinces of Khorasan Razavi, South Khorasan, Semnan, Qom, Sistan and Baluchestan, Yazd, Kerman, Isfahan and Hormozgan, which are obtained from the Machinery Service Department of the Meteorological Organization Upper surface data, include retrieved data of geopotential heights, sea level pressure, humidity, meridian and orbital wind at 1000 to 500 HPA which are used by the European Center for Middle Eastern Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a spatial resolution of 0.75 arcs. Then, using the Grades software, the combined sea level pressure maps and geo potential height of 700 and 500 hp, and the wind vector and moisture at 1000 and 700 hp in the range of 0 to 75 north degrees and 0 to 90 east longitude degrees east were plotted. Using RAI (Anomaly of Annual Rainfall Index), the severe and pervasive drought-wet years of the studied area were extracted and its relationship with the standard situation of the troposphere was investigated. Results and Discussion The peak of drought severity during the entire statistical period belonged to Saravan station with an intensity of 6.44 in 2001, also the highest duration was at Zabul station from 2006 to 2014. The maximum frequency was also observed at Anar, Bam, Kerman, Yazd, Mashhad and Torbat Heydariyeh stations with 17 occurrences during 30 years of statistical period. According to the year of the minimum rainfall, the most pervasive year that was coincident with the most severe drought in the research area was seen in the years 2001, 2010, and 2008, respectively. The most severe wet year occurred in 1991, 1986, 1992, and 1997, respectively. The peak of wet year intensity with 88/11 belonged to Chabahar Station in 1997, and the longest duration occurred in Sirjan and Shahr-e-Babak stations from 1991 to 1997. Maximum frequency was observed in east of Isfahan, Garmsar and Qom stations with 17. According to the maximum rainfall year, it was determined that the most severe and pervasive wet year was in 1991, 1986, 1992, and 1997. In the mentioned years, most stations recorded positive values of the RAI profile. The mentioned years are the most severe wet and drought years during the statistical period in 9 under study provinces in the east and south-east of Iran. The analysing of zoning maps showed that drought and wet years with different intensities occur in each point of the research area. Also, at the time of drought’s occurrence, showed more pervasiveness and less temporal and spatial fluctuations than wet years. this feature indicates more drought’s relationship and effectiveness from synoptic troposphere condition as pervasive and zoning in the research area. But in the wet year’s analysis, even some nearby stations (especially the stations located in Khorasan Razavi and Semnan) have shown a great difference in terms of wet year intensity during the peak years. Synoptic analysis in the peak years of drought showed that the interaction between Siberian high pressure in sea level and sub-tropical anti cyclone in the middle level of troposphere create dry, without turbulence, stable and quiet in the research area. So that the penetration of the Siberian high-pressure with a north eastern direction to the southwest and the extent of the ridge from the near regions equator to high geographical latitudes in northern Europe and Russia and settlement the weak orbital and meridian contours which created from the ridge on the research area prevents the penetration of the southern thermal low pressure (Sudan) and western (Mediterranean) and the deep north troughs and consequently create upward and unstable flows and provide the basis for the most severe and pervasive droughts. In the years which the severity of the drought has increased the axis of the ridge on Iran in the middle level will be southeast- more northwest direction. Also the synoptic analysis conditions of the peak days showed that with the retreat of the Siberian high pressure and European migrant to higher latitudes, the east-ward of anti- cyclone from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea are faced with two changes. One on the sea level with penetration of thermal Sudan low pressure and Mediterranean, and also the second one on the middle levels of the troposphere, north European cyclone and Russian systems stretched on Iran and the research area.  Also, when the severity of wet year was increasing, the troughs are deeper and its direction become northeast to the southwest. Locating the half east of trough on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean And centre of the anti-cyclone with high ridge of north east to the southwest in west of the Arabian sea was the best position in order to strengthen divergent and upward flows, and consequently, the convection of the most volumes of moisture  to the research area. Conclusions Analysis of changes in the RAI index values in the research area indicates that the entire statistical period is divided into two parts: one wet year period (1985-1999) and one large and durable droughts period. By the beginning of the 21st century, the severity, magnitude, frequency and pervasive of droughts have been significantly increased. The peak of drought and wet years severity during 1985-2014 were observed at stations in south-east of Iran. In fact, it can be said that the highest fluctuation of the RAI drought index was observed in stations located in lower latitudes with lower height in south and south-east of Iran and stations located in higher latitudes in the north and west of the study area have experienced more normal conditions. Analyzing the effects of synoptic scale systems in years with decreasing in precipitation for Iran which are experiencing a severe decline in water resources over recent years is important. Therefore, using dynamic and synoptic indicators and the development of a warning system can well predict the droughts affected by synoptic systems in the area. Also, with managing water resources, evaluating the risks of climate change, and modifying and developing predictions, we can minimize the hazards of drought in the future.}, keywords = {Rainfall abnormality index,Drought and wet year,Severe and pervasive,Siberian high pressure,Arabia high pressure,Eastern half of Iran}, title_fa = {آشکارسازی شرایط همدید مؤثر بر خشک‌سالی و ترسالی‌های شدید و فراگیر در نیمه شرقی ایران}, abstract_fa = {خشک‌سالی یکی از مخاطرات طبیعی است که در بیشتر نقاط جهان اتفاق می‌افتد، ولی نمود آن در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک بیشتر است. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی خشک‌سالی- ترسالی‌های شدید و فراگیر در نیمه شرقی ایران و ارتباط آن با وضعیت همدید وردسپهر است. بدین منظور با استفاده از داده‌های ماهانه و سالانه بارش طی دوره (2014- 1985) خشک‌سالی و ترسالی‌های شدید و فراگیر نیمه شرقی ایران با شاخص ناهنجاری بارندگی سالانه (RAI) تعیین گردید. سپس جهت آشکارسازی ارتباط خشک‌سالی و ترسالی‌های رخداده با شرایط همدید، داده‌های سطوح فوقانی وردسپهر از مرکز ملی اقیانوس و جوشناسی ایالات‌متحده آمریکا استخراج شدند. بررسی تغییرات سری زمانی شاخص ناهنجاری بارندگی سالانه (RAI) در منطقه پژوهش نشان داد که دوره آماری موردبررسی می‌تواند به دو دوره تقسیم شود: یک دوره مرطوب (1985 تا 1999)  و یک دوره خشک (2000 تا 2014). بررسی نقشه‌های فشار تراز دریا و ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل در ترازهای 700 و 500 هکتوپاسکال در فصل زمستان سال‌های خشک منتخب نشان داد که اندرکنش بین سامانه پرفشار سیبری در سطح زمین و پرارتفاع جنب‌حاره‌ای عربستان در سطوح میانی وردسپهر بر روی منطقه پژوهش نقش بسزایی در انحراف بادهای غربی به سمت عرض‌های بالاتر و ایجاد شرایطی پایدار و خشک دارد. در مقابل در ماه‌های مرطوب سال‌های منتخب ترسالی، با شرق سو شدن پرارتفاع از شبه‌جزیره عربستان به سمت دریای عرب، اجازه نفوذ سامانه‌های کم‌فشار سودانی و مدیترانه‌ای در سطح زمین و ناوه عمیق مناطق شمالی اروپا و کشور روسیه با راستایی شمال به جنوب در سطوح میانی وردسپهر را به سمت منطقه شرق و جنوب شرق کشور پیدا می‌کنند. سمت جریان باد در سطوح نزدیک به زمین در طی سال‌های خشک به دلیل نفوذ سامانه پرفشار سیبری شمالی بوده و با قرارگیری جریان واچرخندی بر روی شبه‌جزیره عربستان مانع از ایفای نقش دریاهای جنوبی و غربی در فرارفت رطوبت می‌شود. اما در سال‌های مرطوب منتخب با عقب‌نشینی پرفشار قدرتمند سیبری و نفوذ سامانه‌های کم‌فشار و ناوه عرض‌های بالا، سمت باد در سطح زمین و میانی وردسپهر جنوبی و غربی شده و دریاهای مجاور ایران به‌ویژه جنوبی همچون دریای عرب و سرخ نقش تأمین رطوبت را در زمان رخداد ناپایداری و ترسالی‌های فراگیر منطقه پژوهش بر عهده‌دارند.}, keywords_fa = {شاخص ناهنجاری بارندگی,خشکسالی و ترسالی,شدید و فراگیر,پرفشار سیبری,پرارتفاع عربستان,نیمه شرقی ایران}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32704.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32704_0ecf0331d772ddbc38716acbddf32771.pdf} } @article { author = {Roohbakhsh Sigaroodi, Hosseinali and Karampoor, Mostafa and Ghaemi, Hooshang and Moradi, Mohammad and Azadi, Majid}, title = {Investigating Minimum and Maximum Temperature Anomalies during Warm Seasons to Reveal Warm and Cool Spell over Iran}, journal = {Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {161-187}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Ferdowsi University of Mashhad}, issn = {2322-1682}, eissn = {2383-3076}, doi = {10.22067/geo.v0i0.73549}, abstract = {Introduction Temperature is one of the most important parameters of the climate, which is the source of many physical, chemical and environmental changes. Regional assessments of these changes and their understanding of the process in different climatic zones are essential because they can help identify the severe climatic events and their impact on environmental systems and risk management. The importance of the issue and uncertainty about future changes will require us to know why and how the temperature changes affect climate conditions in the future. For this reason, the study of climate events has become a special issue. changes in the average of minimum and maximum temperature have become more intense in recent decades; thus directly or indirectly through the expansion of the growth season of pests and pathogens, increased drought in the spring and soil erosion, etc., can be plant, animal and human life Threatened Hence, the accurate analysis of changes in spatial-temporal patterns is the minimum and maximum temperature for establishing ecosystem management strategies. The geographic location of Iran and the wide range of deserts and dry lands with mountainous areas make its ecosystem vulnerable to slight changes in temperature. Because temperature variations  and affect on  limit plant growth, it can challenge their stability and flexibility. Methodology In this research, by selecting 26 synoptic stations, the required statistics including mean, coefficient of variation, estimation of high and low probability of 20%  for two 30-year periods (1951-1980) and (1981-2010) and two 10-year periods (1951-1960) and (2010-2001) and a 60-year period (1951-2010) were calculated using R software. Then, using the Mann-Kendall test, the two parameters were calculated for the period of 60 years. In the next stage, the patterns of each of the stories were mapped using the IDW method in GIS software and were then interpreted. Discussion The pattern of the average of maximum, minimum and their coefficient of variation shows in the spring, summer and warm period associated with tittle variations. The coefficient of change in the western and northern parts of the country is more variable. The southern half is modest in all three periods. The average of the maximum and minimum temperatures of most stations in the periods 1981-2010 and 2001-2010 has increased. The increase in the mean temperature of the maximum temperature is slower, which reduces the range of temperature changes overnight. The Midwest has the highest average and minimum temperature difference, which is consistent with the results of the difference between the average temperature of the minimum and maximum periods (1960-1951 and 2010-2001). The highest increase was observed in the average temperature of Ahwaz, Tehran, Mashhad, Shiraz and Shahrood cities. The probability of 20%, which is higher than the average maximum temperature, and 20%, which is below the mean minimum temperature showed that the frequency and intensity of the hot and cold periods increased during in  1981-2010. The difference between the average minimum and maximum temperatures 2001-2010 and  1951-1960 showed that except for Urmia, Hamedan, Shahrekord, Khorramabad and Bandarabbas, the remaining stations experienced this increase  in spring. In summer, the stations of Urmia, Shahrekord and Kerman, the rest of the stations for the last 10 years have experienced a rise in the average temperature. Data reconciliation using the Mann-Kendall test for the period 1981-2010 showed that average minimum temperature of 21 stations during spring, and 22 stations in summer was significant. The average temperature of the two stations of Shahrekord and Khorramabad in spring, as well as Urmia and Shahrekord in summer have a significant decrease. The average temperature of spring and summer is also increasing and decreasing. The rate of  increases the average temperature of spring and summer months more severely than the average temperature increase, thereby reducing the range of temperature changes (DTR). Results The average temperature pattern and its coefficient of variation in spring, summer and warm periods in the western and northern parts of the country are more variable than the rest of the regions. The highest coefficient of variation in the northwest, west and the Caspian basin is related to Anzali, Urmia and Zanjan stations, which seems to be influenced more by northern cold weather and roughness conditions. The southern half of the country has notable changes in all three periods indicating that the regime is still stable in spring and summer temperature variations in the region. It is concluded that in these sections, when the northwest adjacent high-lying area is displaced to the central and northern parts of Iran, these areas are affected by the flow of tropical regions increase in the average  of maximun and minimum temperature of most stations in the north-west and west in the second period can be explained by changes in land use, urban expansion, population growth, and consequently, the increase of greenhouse gases and thermal systems and the station's displacement, which can change the climate create an area. It also seems that in the second period, the impact of the northern currents reduced to the first period, and the same has been added to the effects of systems with a southern source and high-altitude hegemonic sovereignty. The increase in mean temperature in the second period was lower in most of the stations than in the first period in summer, which seems to be due to the decrease in the frequency of relatively cold air invasion and also the convective systems. The relative disparity in the north and west of the country is due to the height and direction of roughness. The increase in minimum temperatures in stations like Tehran, Rasht, Mashhad and Tabriz in the northern half of the country is more than 2 degrees in the spring. Although in the spring, the northern part of the country has not yet been influenced by the tallest grassroots dominance. Therefore, such an increase in the average of the minimum temperatures of these stations can be justified in view of the abovementioned cases in the increase of the average maximum temperature. The average temperature increase in summer is slower but is faster regarding the mean minimum temperature; therefore, the range of average mainimin and maximum is declined. Study of 20% above and below average of the maximum and minimum temperature of spring and summer in the two 30 years’ period indicate that frequency and occurrence of the hot spell during the second 30-year period is more than firs 30-years period. The average maximum  temperature in spring has a direct effect on the average summer temperature, and therefore, on the experience of the maximum temperature corresponding to spring. The study of the average minimum temperature is also consistent with global warming and confirms the occurrence of climate change in Iran. The mid-term maximum temperature also indicates an increase in most of the stations. According to what mentioned above, hot nights can increase the risk of terrain events in the country as a result of reducing the range of temperature changes during night, and as a result, can increase the vulnerability of the people to economic, social and environmental problems.}, keywords = {Spatial and temporal patterns,warm priod,cool priod,management of risk,Diurnal temperature range}, title_fa = {بررسی بی‌هنجاری‌های میانگین دمای کمینه و بیشینه ایران در دوره گرم سال به‌منظور شناسایی دوره گرم و سرد}, abstract_fa = {دما از مهم‌ترین فرا سنج‌های جوی است که ارزیابی­ تغییرات آن در مناطق مختلف، می­تواند در آشکارسازی رخدادهای فرین اقلیمی و مدیریت ریسک بسیار مؤثر باشد. بنابراین هدف از این مقاله بررسی و تعیین بی‌هنجاری‌های دما در دوره گرم سال (اپریل-سپتامبر) در دو دوره 30 ساله 1980-1951، 2010-1981 و دو دوره ده‌ساله 1960-1951،2010-2001 و دوره 60 ساله 2010-1951 است. داده‌های روزانه 26 ایستگاه همدیدی با پایه آماری مشترک (2010-1951) از سازمان هواشناسی تهیه و پس از بررسی کیفی، آماره‌های موردنیاز برای بهار و تابستان در بازه‌های زمانی فوق تهیه شد. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار GIS نقشه‌های میانگین دمای کمینه و بیشینه، الگوی ضریب تغییرات و برآورد احتمال 20% حد بالا و پایین آن‌ها تهیه و تفسیر شد. تأثیرگذاری الگوی فضایی_زمانی میانگین دمای بیشینه 30 ساله و 10 ساله دوم بر الگوی متناظر آن در بازه 60 ساله بیشتر بوده است؛ بنابراین در فرا سنج موردنظر و ضریب تغییرات مربوط به آن در دوره 30 ساله و 10 ساله دوم، نسبت به دوره‌های 30 ساله و 10 ساله اول، تغییر نسبی ایجادشده است. میانگین دمای بیشینه و کمینه اغلب ایستگاه‌ها در بازه (2010-1981) و (2010-2001) افزایش داشته است. نیمه غربی بیشترین کاهش میانگین دمای کمینه و بیشینه را تجربه کرده است که با نتایج تفاضل میانگین دمای کمینه و بیشینه دوره (1960-1951 و 2010-2001) تطابق دارد. افزایش میانگین دمای کمینه در شهرهای بزرگ و پرجمعیت سریع‌تر است که سبب کاهش دامنه تغییرات شبانه‌روزی دما می‌شود. احتمال 20% بالا (پایین) میانگین دمای بیشینه (کمینه)، نشانه تواتر و گسترش دوره گرم و سرد بیشتر در بازه (2010-1981) است. آزمون من-کندال نشان می‌دهد که میانگین دمای کمینه 21 ایستگاه در بهار و 22 ایستگاه در تابستان دارای روند معنی‌دار بوده است. به‌غیراز انزلی در تابستان، بقیه در هر دو فصل بهار و تابستان، روند افزایشی داشتند که می‌تواند به‌طور مستقیم و غیرمستقیم از طریق گسترش فصل رشد آفات و عوامل بیماری‌زا، وقوع خشک‌سالی‌های بهار و تابستان و فرسایش خاک حیات انسان و سایر جانداران را تهدید کند.        }, keywords_fa = {الگوهای فضایی-زمانی,دوره گرم,دوره خنک,مدیریت ریسک,اختلاف شبانه روزی دما}, url = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32740.html}, eprint = {https://geoeh.um.ac.ir/article_32740_31d5ef45bd7677ff1d1f502fb54009ae.pdf} }